The Win Probability Changes in the Cardinals-Seahawks Tie Were Nearly as Strange as the Game Itself
It may be a bit counterintuitive to peep the win-probability chart of a game with no winner, but sticking around for overtime of last night's tie between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals didn't make much sense, either.
Giddy up, y'all. We're going back in for more.
Below, you can see the overall fluctuations in win probability, courtesy of numberFire Live, as the Seahawks and Cardinals meandered their way to a 6-6 stalemate in the desert. It's a lot easier to stomach if you pretend the swings at the end were from big plays rather than missed field goals.
It seemed like Arizona had things wrapped up prior to Chandler Catanzaro's missed field goal in overtime. The Cardinals' win probability spiked to 84.69% when Carson Palmer hit J.J. Nelson for a gain down to the five-yard line. As you can see, they were looking just dandy, even after a delay-of-game penalty, until Catanzaro slammed the door on that script.
|Play||Resulting Yard Line||Win Odds|
|D. Johnson Four-Yard Rush||Seattle 1||90.55%|
|D. Johnson Rush for No Gain||Seattle 1||90.77%|
|Delay of Game||Seattle 6||84.33%|
|C. Catanzarro Missed Field Goal||Seattle 14||21.33%|
After the miss, the odds of a tie were looking pretty juicy. The Cardinals -- as you can see -- were chilling at 21.33% win odds, and the Seahawks were at 20.18%. Then, of course, they decided to give us a prayer for competency.
Things were still bleak for a while until Russell Wilson found Doug Baldwin for a 27-yard gain down to the Arizona 9-yard line. That brought their win odds up to 71.76%, leaving Steven Hauschka in position to end it.
Even after the miss, the Seahawks still had higher win odds than the Cardinals. They were at 10.68% -- on the chance that the Cardinals turned the ball over -- while the Cardinals were at 1.93%. Arizona did get a bump on Palmer's 19-yard completion to Larry Fitzgerald, but it was all for naught.
Throughout the entire game, neither team had a win probability higher than the Cardinals' 90.77% prior to the delay of game in overtime.
The Cardinals topped out at 71.76% prior to Hauschka's miss. If you just look at that, it seems like a pretty competitive game.
Let's just leave it at that and pretend the rest never happened, shall we?