The 7 Riskiest Players in Fantasy Football
5. Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins
Matt Jones finished as the 40th-ranked running back in fantasy football last season while splitting time with Alfred Morris and Chris Thompson. Apparently that was enough for the Redskins to believe he could be a full-time starter, as they have since let go of Morris, didn’t draft a running back until the seventh round, and didn’t add any established running backs in free agency.
Jones did show flashes of talent last season, including turning 19 carries into 123 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against the Rams in Week 2 and a big 78-yard touchdown on a screen pass against the Saints in Week 10. He also showed that he can certainly stay on the field in passing situations – among all running backs with at least 25 targets in 2015, his 0.85 Reception NEP per target ranked first.
He has the potential, and he has been given the opportunity, so sure it’s possible for him to reach his ceiling projection as the 14th-ranked fantasy running back this season.
But his floor lands him just three spots off where he was last year -- as the 37th running back -- and it’s all too easy to see how he could get there.
As efficient as he was at catching the ball (when he got the opportunity), Jones' rushing was on the opposite end of the spectrum -- among the 44 running backs with 100 or more carries in 2015, his -0.19 Rushing NEP per attempt ranked dead last. Jones’ four lost fumbles were tied for most among all running backs, which led to him being benched during the season.
As I mentioned earlier, Morris isn’t there to replace him in those scenarios anymore, and the Redskins didn’t draft anyone until the seventh round. But that seventh round pick was Keith Marshall, who only slid that far due to injury concerns. If Marshall can regain the form we saw during his 8-touchdown, 6.5 yards per carry season in 2012, he can certainly dig into Jones' workload.
Jones’ floor would lead to him spending most of 2016 on the bench of fantasy rosters, which would be a huge blow to anyone drafting him at his current early fifth-round ADP.
