5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 11

Seattle Seahawks Rushing Offense

If you feel like Marshawn Lynch has just kind of been derping around in the fantasy realm this year, you're certainly not wrong. He has only found the end zone three times, and he has been held below 10 points on FanDuel three separate times. So why should we trust him, considering his price tag still hasn't dipped?

It's all about the matchup, baby.

The Seattle Seahawks are going up against a San Francisco 49ers team that ranks 28th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. The Seahawks are at home and favored by 13.5 points with an implied team total of 26.75. It checks every box you look for in running back selection. The only thing holding us back is our own recency bias.

This isn't to say that Lynch has been better than his fantasy output says this year. His struggles have also translated into his advanced analytics.

Lynch ranks 26th in Rushing NEP per carry of the 36 backs with at least 80 carries just one year after he led the league in this stat. It is mildly encouraging that he moves up to 14th in Rushing Success Rate of that same group, but there are still some red flags here that make Lynch a bit too risky for a cash game. It doesn't prevent him from being one of my favorite tournament options of the week.

If we're looking for reasoning behind Lynch's ineffectiveness this year, a significant portion of the blame needs to go to the Seahawks as a team. Lynch has played in eight games this year, and the Seahawks have only won three of those. In one of the victories, he was injured and restricted to only five carries before exiting the game. However, in the two games where he was healthy and the Seahawks had a positive game script, Lynch saw 27 and 21 carries respectively. The volume will be there if he's in the right situation, and that appears to be the case this week.

With Lynch, I'm not overly worried about ownership. With what Adrian Peterson did last week and Devonta Freeman facing the Indianapolis Colts, both are decently attractive options for those looking to pay up at running back. Lynch's price ($8,100 on FanDuel and $6,700 on DraftKings) is a bit steeper than I would have hoped, but that should allow us to snag him at reduced ownership. If that ends up being the case, his steep ceiling in this matchup can help compensate for the legitimate concerns.