5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 11
Detroit Lions Passing Offense
You think I want this game to be high-scoring? Considering the investment I would want, it's destined to end up as a 17-14 affair with a pair of defensive touchdowns. Let's just close our eyes and let the bad defenses take the wheel.
Thankfully, Vegas is also into this game as being up there in total points. The over/under of 48 is tied for the highest mark of the week, and with the spread close to even, the teams project to be in a neutral game script. This is the optimal case we can see out of Vegas lines when it comes to quarterback selection.
Don't get this twisted: Matthew Stafford is not a good quarterback. He's 30th in Passing NEP per drop back of the 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, and Detroit only ranks 22nd as a team when you adjust for strength of schedule. This is based on their opposition and the potential volume.
As great as the Raiders' passing offense has been, their passing defense has been equally bad. They are 29th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against them in seven of nine games, with one of the other games coming against Peyton Manning and the other in 25-mile-per-hour wind. In every game they have faced a quarterback with a functioning arm in non-extreme conditions, they have allowed that quarterback to finish in the top 12 in weekly scoring. There's actually a decent floor here, even though Stafford really isn't that good individually.
The other aspect of this is volume. I'm not a fan of chasing volume with quarterbacks, but I'm willing to budge when the opposing defense struggles as much as Oakland does. Oakland struggles against the rush, ranking 26th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, but Detroit is 27th on the offensive side. Whether it be their offensive line or their running backs, they cannot move the ball on the ground. As a result, they have the highest pass-to-run ratio in the league. Against this defense, that volume could lead to good things.
I'm not enamored Stafford as I believe there are decent other options at his price point, but he's really not terrible. When he has faced defenses outside of the top 10 in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, Stafford has averaged 21.3 FanDuel points per game with a median of 18.7. It's not great, but I think he's at least viable in tournaments.
The main targets here are Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron. Johnson has seen at least seven targets in every game since Week 1, and Stafford's lack of efficiency hurts himself more than it hurts Johnson. With Johnson hitting at least 5 receptions for 80 yards in each of his past four games, I'm all about that life in this matchup.
Ebron is mostly based on price and upside. He has seen at least five targets in every game he has finished this year, including eight last week. Every tight end seeing anywhere near that volume who has faced the Raiders this year has finished in the top four in weekly scoring. The closest exception came last week in Kyle Rudolph, who dropped a pass in the end zone with no defenders within 10 yards. Ebron has the ability to gash this defense for only $5,400 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings. I'll take that in a heartbeat.
