5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 7
Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense
This is another one that isn't sneaky by any means, but it hasn't been getting nearly enough attention this week relative to the values mentioned at the beginning of the piece. It should.
Overshadowed by the offense's struggles, the New Orleans Saints' pass defense has been quite putrid itself this year. They rank 29th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They have also allowed two separate quarterbacks to finish in the top three of weekly scoring on the year. With the Indianapolis Colts hosting them next, you may be able to add another name to that list.
Despite having dealt with injuries to Andrew Luck and starting Matt Hasselbeck while basically on his death bed, the Colts still rank 14th in Adjusted Passing NEP per play. Hasselbeck showed up well in his two-game stint, and Luck rebounded with a decent performance last week against the New England Patriots. Luck will likely never be overflowing with efficiency because of his affinity for interceptions, but he can still be an intriguing fantasy option.
Figuring out a place for Luck is the tough part. Palmer appears to be the obvious cash-game play for this week with his floor, and I wouldn't deviate from that for this situation, especially when pricing is taken into account. Additionally, I have never been an advocate of spending up on quarterbacks in tournaments because you'd rather have the high variance of a guy at a lower price. So, what's the point of even discussing Luck?
There is some thought to the "spending up to be contrarian" strategy. Because Palmer is the most obvious play (with Philip Rivers likely in second), not many are going to be willing to spend up for Luck. This means you could be getting a guy who topped 30 FanDuel points in 25 percent of his games last year at reduced ownership. That's huge additional value, and I think it does make Luck a viable option in tournaments.
I probably don't need to mention this, but I do love me some T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief, as well. Both have seen more than 20 percent of the Colts' targets this year, and both get to face that same gross Saints secondary. Moncrief figures to have high ownership, but he's worth it at his price in this matchup.
