3 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in the Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints' Rushing Offense

In the traditional sense, the Saints' rushing offense isn't necessarily in some sort of sieve spot against the Philadelphia Eagles. Although the Eagles have had their issues stopping the run at times, they're not terrible in that department when you look at just opposing rushing efficiency.

It's moreso how they should be expected to perform against a back with Alvin Kamara's skillset.

The Eagles finished the year ranked 18th against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. That means they'd rank sixth among teams playing this weekend and fourth among teams on the Sunday-only slate. In that sense, it's a plus matchup.

But this defense also just held Jordan Howard to 10 rushes for 35 yards last weekend while playing on the road. Timmy Jernigan played 34.4% of the snaps in that one, his highest mark of the entire year. They're not a bad rush defense.

Instead, we're drawn here because of what pass-catching backs can do against this team. That's Kamara's biggest appeal, and he could light them up in the passing game on Sunday.

For the regular season, the Eagles allowed 110 receptions to running backs, more than every team except the Atlanta Falcons. That led to some huge games for pass-catching backs against them.

Sure, that list includes some of the top pass-catching backs in the game. But Kamara's in that tier, as well, and even lesser backs were able to eat through the air against this defense.

You will note, though, that Kamara isn't on the list above even though the two teams played back in Week 11. In that game, Kamara had just one target, which might be concerning. But with the Saints getting out front big early, they didn't really need to throw, and Kamara certainly made that one target count, turning it into a 37-yard score.

As rushers, Kamara and Mark Ingram combined to turn 29 carries into 174 yards and 2 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Kamara, 103 of the yards and both rushing touchdowns went Ingram's direction. So why should we be getting all hot and bothered about Kamara when his salary is up at $8,400?

Part of it is simply because Kamara's the guy better positioned to exploit the Eagles' deficiencies against pass-catching backs. Since the Saints' bye week (excluding Week 17 when Kamara sat), Kamara has 19.9% of the Saints' total targets and 21.7% of their red-zone targets. That's despite having those totals dragged down by a pair of games (against the Eagles and Atlanta Falcons) where Kamara saw just a single target as the Saints were able to cruise to victory.

The other aspect of Kamara's appeal relative to Ingram is the way the Saints used Kamara in the postseason last year. It could foretell an increased role on Sunday.

In the second half of 2017 (excluding a game Kamara left early due to a concussion), he averaged 53.6% of the Saints' snaps. That jumped above 60% in both of the Saints' playoff games as they funneled more work his way relative to Ingram.

This year, Kamara's snap rate is already there. He has played at least 60% of the snaps in six straight games, hitting 69.2% in a high-profile game against the Cowboys and 71.7% against the Minnesota Vikings. It seems like Kamara's snap rate gets a boost in games where the stakes are the highest, which would bode well for Kamara as the Saints transition into postseason play.

As a result of those snap rates, Kamara has pumped out solid fantasy totals even while splitting time with Ingram. He hasn't scored fewer than 10.3 FanDuel points since the game before their bye, averaging 19.0 per game in that span. He showed his ceiling was still solid, too, by scoring 31.6 in their showdown with the Rams.

Overall, the biggest difference with Kamara between the early season and now is that he has seen a bit less volume, putting a cap on his ceiling. He's still hyper-efficient in the touches he is getting, and his volume could get a bump as we get to the crunch time of the season. Add in the matchup with the Eagles, and Kamara is pretty clearly the top back available on the Sunday-only slate.