Full 2018 NFL Playoff and Seeding Odds Entering Week 17

AFC Playoff and Seeding Odds

In the AFC, things are going to swing pretty wildly on Sunday. The New England Patriots could be anywhere from the 1 seed through the 4 seed, and the Houston Texans have a legit chance at being either the 1 seed or the 6 seed. Madness reigns. Here's a team-by-team breakdown of where things stand entering Sunday in order of each team's current seeding.

Kansas City Chiefs

Playoff Odds: 100%

Division Odds: 88.38%

Seeding Possibilities: 1 seed (82.90%), 2 seed (1.77%), 3 seed (3.70%), 5 seed (11.62%)

The Chiefs' overall range of outcomes is pretty large, but their edict is also clear: if they win, the AFC goes through Arrowhead.

numberFire's algorithms like the Chiefs' odds of knocking off the Oakland Raiders this week quite a bit. They're at 82.72% win odds, fourth-highest of any team in action this week. It's a loss for the Chiefs that makes things interesting.

Let's assume for a second that the Chiefs lose. In that scenario, they'd still have a 1.05% shot at the 1 seed and a 32.75% chance at winning the AFC West. But their most likely seed in that scenario would be the 5 seed with the Chargers leapfrogging them for the division.

Based on this, you can expect Patrick Mahomes and company to come out guns blazin' on Sunday. With the Chiefs' defense allowing 20.1 points per game at home compared to 34.6 per game on the road, it's looking good but either way they need this win badly.

New England Patriots

Playoff Odds: 100%

Division Odds: 100%

Seeding Possibilities: 1 seed (4.94%), 2 seed (82.74%), 3 seed (4.48%), 4 seed (7.85%)

The New England Patriots are in a position similar to the Chiefs: if they win, they're the 2 seed at worst, and numberFire's algorithms peg their odds of defeating the New York Jets at 87.21%. A win for the Patriots still leaves their odds of home-field at just 5.66%, though, as they'd also need losses by both the Chiefs and the Chargers.

With how well Sam Darnold has played since returning from injury, we should also at least entertain the possibility the Patriots lose that game. If that happens, the Patriots would still have a 3.61% shot at a first-round bye, needing losses by the Texans, Ravens, and Titans to get there. The more likely scenario is having to play in the first round, though, with a 35.04% shot at the 3 seed and a 61.35% shot at the 4 seed if the Jets do wind up snatching victory from their divisional rivals.

Houston Texans

Playoff Odds: 100%

Division Odds: 75.05%

Seeding Possibilities: 1 seed (0.54%), 2 seed (12.76%), 3 seed (61.75%), 6 seed (24.95%)

If the Texans win against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, the AFC South is theirs, and they have a shot at a first-round bye. If they lose, they get the 6 seed. There's a lot on the line at NRG Stadium.

Because things are set in the event of a loss, let's assume for a second that the Texans win (which numberFire's algorithms have happening 75.05% of the time). If that does happen, they'd then have 17.72% odds of claiming a first-round bye. Just 0.72% of that includes home-field advantage as they would need losses by the Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots to get there. But you're telling me there's a chance.

if the Texans do wind up losing, their most likely first-round opponent would be the Ravens, but they could also get a third meeting with the Colts or Titans. The odds of facing the Ravens in that scenario would be 60.72%.

Baltimore Ravens

Playoff Odds: 75.23%

Division Odds: 75.23%

Seeding Possibilities: 2 seed (2.22%), 3 seed (21.83%), 4 seed (51.17%)

The odds for the Ravens making the playoffs are their odds of beating the Cleveland Browns (69.63%) plus the odds that both they and the Steelers lose. But given that Pittsburgh has 81.57% win odds, the Ravens need to win this game.

That's just no small task with how saucy Baker Mayfield has been since the team's coaching changeover. With Freddie Kitchens calling plays, Mayfield has added 0.28 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, which would rank fourth among all quarterbacks if it were his full-season mark. The Browns also have a chance to finish with a winning record, so a Baltimore win here should not be assumed.

But because contradiction is fun, let's do exactly that. If the Ravens do win, their most likely spot is still the 4 seed at 61.75%. They would, though, have a 31.36% shot at the 3 seed, and they'd get a first-round bye as the 2 seed 3.19% of the time. The Ravens could -- in theory -- still host the AFC Championship Game or miss the playoffs entirely. Again, Sunday's gonna be fun.

Los Angeles Chargers

Playoff Odds: 100%

Division Odds: 11.62%

Seeding Possibilities: 1 seed (11.62%), 5 seed (88.38%)

Sunday could be a day of scoreboard watching for the Chargers. If the Chiefs get up big early, it will lock the Chargers into the 5 seed, potentially forcing them to rest guys like Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen later in the game. That doesn't lower how impactful this one is.

Right now, the Chargers have 67.25% odds of knocking off the Denver Broncos on the road. The Broncos have yet to top 16 points since Emmanuel Sanders' season-ending injury, and stud corner Chris Harris will also miss the game. As long as the Chargers keep the starters in the full game, they've got a good chance of taking care of their end of the bargain.

But in order to snag the 1 seed, they need a loss by the Chiefs, which the algorithms see happening just 17.28% of the time. This game is monumental for the Chargers, but with the Chiefs controlling the Chargers' fate, it's no guarantee we get four whole quarters of LA's studs.

Indianapolis Colts

Playoff Odds: 47.66%

Division Odds: 11.89%

Seeding Possibilities: 3 seed (3.61%), 4 seed (8.28%), 6 seed (35.77%)

For both the Colts and Titans, Sunday night is simple: win, and you're in. Both teams still have a shot at the division, as well.

If the Texans lose earlier in the day, it will guarantee that the winner of this game winds up being the AFC South champion. If that happens, the Colts can be either the 3 seed (30.37% odds) or the 4 seed (69.63%). This would lead to a home playoff game in the first round. With Andrew Luck averaging 0.35 Passing NEP per drop back at home compared to 0.06 on the road, that makes a major difference for this team. It was the Jaguars who put the Colts in this must-win scenario by knocking them off, 6-0, in Week 13, but they won't have many bigger fans than the Colts on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans

Playoff Odds: 52.34%

Division Odds: 13.06%

Seeding Possibilities: 2 seed (0.51%), 3 seed (4.62%), 4 seed (7.93%), 6 seed (39.28%)

A team leaning a decent amount on the "services" of Blaine Gabbert could get a first-round bye. We should probably be giving more love to head coach Mike Vrabel for his first year in Tennessee.

Thankfully for the Titans, they may not need Gabbert in this one. Marcus Mariota was able to return to practice Thursday, lining him up to play on Sunday. When healthy, Mariota has been better than perception this year.

Mariota seemed to get back to almost full health after the team's bye in Week 8, giving us a sample of eight games to look at. In that time, Mariota has averaged 0.13 Passing NEP per drop back, which is an above-average mark. Meanwhile, Gabbert for the full season is at -0.01 Passing NEP per drop back, so they need Mariota healthy here.

If we assume the Titans win this game (as you can see above, those odds are at 52.34%) and the Texans lose, the Titans would then most likely wind up in the 4 seed (60.72%). They'd have 35.39% odds of netting the 3 seed and 3.88% odds at a first-round bye. Because the Texans play earlier Sunday, the Titans and Colts will already know if the AFC South title is on the line, but this game is going to be big no matter what.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Playoff Odds: 24.77%

Division Odds: 24.77%

Seeding Possibilities: 4 seed (24.77%)

For the Steelers, it's win or go home. It could also be win and go home. This is what happens when you lose to the Raiders.

Right now, the algorithms assign the Steelers an 81.57% shot at defeating the Cincinnati Bengals. It's easy to understand that with the Bengals' defense allowing 13 passing touchdowns compared to just 1 interception since their bye week. The trouble comes from the Ravens-Browns matchup.

Of the teams still in the hunt, the Steelers currently have the lowest playoff odds at 24.77%. Again, though, with the Browns playing well, a victory for the Ravens is far from a lock. The odds may be a bit slim, but we shouldn't be counting the Steelers out just yet.