Biggest NFL Playoff Odds Movers: Week 16

With only one more week to go in the regular season, which teams have the best odds of securing the final playoff spots?

In Week 16, four teams formally clinched a playoff berth while four teams were eliminated. This leaves six teams vying for three playoff spots in what has the potential to be a wild final weekend.

Thanks to their win over the Chargers in Los Angeles last Saturday, the Ravens appear to be in the best shape of this bunch. The victory, coupled with Pittsburgh's loss in New Orleans, means Baltimore will clinch the AFC North with a victory at home against Cleveland.

The Ravens can also take the division with a Steelers loss at home against the Bengals.

This circumstance means Pittsburgh is the team that is still alive with the worst playoff odds, as their chances fell by nearly 50% over the weekend.


Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

Playoff Odds Movement: +27.3%
Week 16 Result: Def. Los Angeles Chargers, 22-10
Odds Before Week 16: 48.0%
Odds After Week 16: 75.3%

Assuming Baltimore makes the playoffs (and it would take a loss and a Steelers win for this not to happen, excluding scenarios with ties), its seeding is up in the air.

The Ravens get a bye if they win and New England and Houston both lose, but since the Patriots host the Jets and the Texans host the Jaguars, this scenario is unlikely.

They would nab the No. 3 seed if the they win and either the Patriots or Texans lose and would be the No. 4 if all three teams win (or if they win the North via a Pittsburgh loss or tie).

Tennessee Titans (9-6)

Playoff Odds Movement: +17.5%
Week 16 Result: Def. Washington, 25-16
Odds Before Week 16: 34.8%
Odds After Week 16: 52.3%

Tennessee has a simple path to the postseason: beat the Colts.

The winner of the Titans-Colts game is assured of a postseason berth and would actually also win the AFC South in the event of a Texans loss. Otherwise, this team would earn the conference's final wild card spot.

Indianapolis is a three-point road favorite, but our models actually give a slight edge to Tennessee.

Minnesota Vikings (8-6-1)

Playoff Odds Movement: +13.3%
Week 16 Result: Def. Detroit, 27-9
Odds Before Week 16: 58.6%
Odds After Week 16: 71.9%

The Vikings took care of business against Detroit on Sunday, meaning they are also in a "win-and-in" situation at home against Chicago.

Minnesota would also clinch a wild card berth with a tie or a loss from the Eagles, who are on the road against Washington. The Vikings are more likely than not to be the No. 6 seed, but can jump up a spot with a win and a Seattle loss.


Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-1)

Playoff Odds Movement: -48.6%
Week 16 Result: Lost to New Orleans, 31-28
Odds Before Week 16: 73.3%
Odds After Week 16: 24.7%

Things broke about as poorly as they could have for the Steelers over the weekend, as not only did Baltimore win, but the Colts and Titans did as well.

Even if the Steelers take care of business against Cincinnati, they would need the Ravens to either lose to or tie with Cleveland, or for Indianapolis and Tennessee to tie with each other to make the playoffs.

Washington Redskins (7-8)

Playoff Odds Movement: -16.8%
Week 16 Result: Lost to Tennessee, 25-16
Odds Before Week 16: 16.8%
Odds After Week 16: 0.0%

Washington had playoff odds above 69% as late as Week 12, but the combination of its own loss to Tennessee and Philadelphia's victory officially eliminated them from postseason contention.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)

Playoff Odds Movement: -5.9%
Week 16 Result: Def. Houston, 32-30
Odds Before Week 16: 34.0%
Odds After Week 16: 28.1%

Philadelphia has become the second team in as many weeks to see its playoff odds go down despite a victory.

This quirk stems from the fact that Minnesota's win was much more impactful than the Eagles' own victory, as it puts the Vikings on the cusp of a postseason berth.

The Eagles need to win and have Minnesota lose to grab the final NFC wild card berth; a tie in either game would also end Philadelphia's title defense.