Week 17 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under: 50.5
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 26.00
Falcons Implied Team Total: 24.50
In this game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons, we get the rare meaningless Week 17 divisional tilt. On paper, this projects as a shootout. Both defenses grade out as bottom-six units per numberFire's Net Expected Points model, while both passing offenses rank in the top third of the league. While neither team has anything to play for, both coaches are on the hot seat and would like to send the season with a divisional win. While trusting that assumption may feel a little dicey in cash, this game makes a lot of sense for tournament exposure.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $7,600
At this price, Jameis Winston would be an ideal cash-game option if not for any potential uncertainty. Still, he's definitely in consideration. Winston's price has dropped after two predictable down performances which came against the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys, both of which have been tough on quarterbacks all year long. Now he gets to face an Atlanta defense that ranks bottom-three in both fantasy points and rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. Winston's best performance of the season came when these teams met earlier this year, when he unloaded 395 passing yards, 29 rushing yards and 4 passing touchdowns en route to 32.7 fantasy points.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Price: $5,100
Feel free to hop off the Chris Godwin train, but I refuse to sell my ticket. Godwin is simply far too cheap for his opportunity assuming that DeSean Jackson ($5,200) sits. Jackson missed Thursday's practice with an Achilles injury. Godwin, meanwhile, had a robust 20% target share in the three games Jackson missed and his down games came in tough matchups. This is not a tough matchup. Though it feels scarier than it did a few weeks ago, I'm riding with Godwin as a strong cash and GPP option and great stack with Winston.
Others to Consider
Matt Ryan ($8,500) is a high-floor if low-ceiling option who averages four fewer fantasy points per game on the road this season. Ryan isn't an overly enticing play given his high price, though he did light the Bucs up for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns at home back in October.
Julio Jones ($8,600) is a tough nut to crack this week. In a normal week at full-health, he'd be a borderline cash-lock in this ideal matchup. But battling hip and rib injuries in a meaningless game, it's possible Atlanta lightens his workload to preserve the team's star player. It doesn't help that he saw a season-low five targets last week. Ultimately, it's tough to trust Julio in cash this week given the injury concerns.
Prior to last week, Mohamed Sanu ($5,800) hadn't surpassed 10 FanDuel points since Week 6. Sanu is a low-floor, bet-on-matchup tournament play in likely neutral game script. More talented with stronger touchdown equity, I'd rather chase Calvin Ridley's ($5,900) big game. Both he and Sanu would benefit should Jones be limited.
Clearly playing through injuries late in the season, Austin Hooper ($5,200) is tough to trust with just three targets over his last two games. Working in his favor are his price (16th among tight ends) and matchup (dusted Tampa Bay for 9 catches, 71 yards and a touchdown earlier this year). Hooper is a low-floor cost-saving tournament option who figures to have light ownership.
As it currently stands, Tevin Coleman ($6,300) is questionable with a groin injury. If Coleman plays, he's a great contrarian tournament play coming off an injury-fueled dud at high ownership last week. If he's unable to go, Brian Hill ($5,300) would likely step into feature-back duties coming off a strong Week 16 performance. With such a close spread, it's unlikely either of these backs need worry about negative game script heavily affecting their touch projection.
Even in negative game script each of the last two weeks, Peyton Barber ($5,500) managed 20-plus touches in both appearances. Averaging 18.7 touches per game over the last six weeks, this is a sneaky good spot for Barber as a slight home favorite going up against numberFire's second-worst ranked run defense.
Never a consistent fantasy option, Mike Evans has yet to score 20-plus FanDuel points since before Thanksgiving. He is an every-week GPP option but one who's ceiling hasn't matched his price of late.
The sneakiest receiver play on the Tampa side is probably Adam Humphries ($6,300), who led the team in targets (12) and receptions (10) last week. While the game script likely won't be as pass-friendly, the matchup is much better against an Atlanta team that struggles to defend the slot. Humphries has scored 11 or more FanDuel points in six of his last nine, giving him a comfortable cash floor.
Cameron Brate is just a touchdown-or-bust option in a great matchup. At least he's cheap.
