Week 17 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders

Over/Under: 52.5

Chiefs Implied Team Total: 33.00
Raiders Implied Team Total: 19.50

It's only fitting that Week 17 starts off with a weekly staple here: The Kansas City Chiefs. This week, they're bringing the Oakland Raiders along for the ride. While Oakland hasn't been a feeding ground for fantasy points this year, it's worth noting these teams did combine for 73 points when they met in Oakland earlier this month. It's also worth noting that Oakland's offense has been atrocious away from home, while Kansas City's defense always buckles down within the confines of Arrowhead Stadium. Because Kansas City must win to clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed, we can assume Andy Reid won't be resting any starters.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Price: $7,700

Let's not overthink this. For one, the Chiefs need to win. The Raiders allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, while Travis Kelce broke the slate with 32.8 FanDuel points the last time these teams met. His price is down $300 after two consecutive floor games, and he has had fewer than nine targets just once over his last eight games (he still had seven targets in that game). This is a smash spot for the league's best tight end.

Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Price: $6,600

Spencer Ware practiced fully on Wednesday, suggesting he's over his hamstring injury. While Damien Williams ($6,900) has exceeded expectations in his stead, it's important we recognize that Ware sat above Williams on the depth chart all season long. Andy Reid is notorious for sticking with a one-back system, and my money is on Ware resuming his role as the feature back. That would make him an easy cash and GPP play at this price as a heavily-favored running back at home facing numberFire's third-worst graded run defense. It's also possible that Williams' presence keeps Ware's GPP ownership lower than it should be. Of course, if Ware is forced to sit, Williams becomes a great play, albeit one with much higher ownership.

Others to Consider

Per numberFire's Net Expected Points model, Kansas City comfortably sports the league's most-efficient passing offense. Meanwhile, Oakland's passing defense ranks dead last according to the same model. Though he's easily the most-expensive quarterback on the slate, Patrick Mahomes ($9,500) should rip this one apart. As usual, he's playable in all formats.

The Raiders are the worst team in the league at generating pressure. Accordingly, Oakland is tied for having allowed the most completions of 40-plus yards. Painfully close to several big touchdowns over the last few weeks, this is a smash spot for Tyreek Hill, who's price has dipped down to $7,800. Hill averages 9.2 targets per game when Sammy Watkins sits this year, which we'll get to in a second.

As such heavy favorites, the Chiefs project to control the game script throughout. Having missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, it's unlikely Sammy Watkins ($6,600) plays. That's not the type of script to target Demarcus Robinson ($5,200) and Chris Conley ($4,700), neither of whom have seen consistent usage with Watkins out.

It's sure taken a while, but Jordy Nelson ($5,200) has quietly become a sneaky good play on the Raiders side. Counting backwards from Week 16, Nelson has seen 10, 8, 7 and 11 targets over his last four games. He's simply way too cheap for that kind of usage and makes sense to stack with the Chiefs' best playmakers. No other receivers on the Raiders are worth mentioning.

On paper this may seem like a good spot to play Jared Cook ($6,000), but caution signs abound. While the Chiefs have permitted the second-most points to tight ends on the year, almost all of that came with tight-end stopper Eric Berry out. Not only is Berry back in the lineup, but Cook (and the Raiders offense in general) has been a ghost away from home this year. While he averages 16.65 PPR points per game at home in 2018, he averages a measly 7.8 per game on the road.

The Kansas City D/ST ($4,400) is always in play as a two-score home favorite.