5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15

Dallas Cowboys' Passing Offense

The other game with at least some appeal here is between the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts. Given how well the Colts have performed at home against the tough defenses in the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars, both sides are in play. But from a matchup perspective, there's a lot to like in the Cowboys' passing game.

The Colts got off to a surprising start this year, holding opponents to 20 or fewer points in 2 of their first 3 games. They also held the Houston Texans to just 21 points on the road last week.

But the data is skeptical of this periodic success.

When you adjust for the schedule the Colts have faced, they're ranked 25th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. Even in Indy, Blake Bortles had 320 yards and 2 touchdowns against this team prior to his benching. With Dak Prescott's play on the rise entering this game, he can absolutely take advantage.

Specifically, we're looking at Prescott since the team acquired Amari Cooper. The table below compares Prescott before and after the trade, and it has been a night-and-day difference.

Prescott still hasn't been an upper-echelon quarterback, and there are some throws being left on the field. But Cooper's presence drastically changes the efficiency of this team.

As you can see in that table, this has been big for Prescott's fantasy output. He has topped 26 FanDuel points twice since the trade, and he has had at least 14.16 points in each game. He was held below that number three times before Cooper got to town.

On top of that, for whatever reason, Prescott has become a bigger rushing threat close to the goal line in this time. With Cooper on the team, Prescott has 11 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, only 1 less than Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott had one such attempt the entire year prior to the Cooper trade. This has allowed him to score a rushing touchdown in three of the past five games, and that doesn't seem completely unsustainable.

Prescott is $7,300 as a slight underdog against a poor defense while playing indoors, and he's throwing the ball with a decent amount of efficiency. That's a profile we should be able to get behind on the main slate.

That brings us to Cooper. There, things get a bit trickier.

From a salary and workload perspective, Cooper is a tremendous play. Despite seeing 25.7% of the team's total targets, 31.0% of the deep targets, and 28.6% of the red-zone targets since joining the Cowboys, Cooper's salary actually decreased $300 to $6,600 on FanDuel. That's far lower than what his role says it should be, meaning he's a tremendous play in a vacuum and cash-game viable.

But we don't play DFS in a vacuum. Context tells us that Cooper's going to be an abundantly popular option this week, and that's scary given the position he plays.

For the full season, there have been five receivers who have been on at least 30% of all FanDuel Sunday Million rosters (numbers that you can get each Monday if you're a numberFire premium member). Of those five, only two have scored more than 12 FanDuel points, and none have had more than 21.5.

If we lower the bar to those on at least 20% of rosters, we get 45 receivers. Only 12 of those 45 have scored at least 2 points for every $1,000 of salary compared to 13 receivers who have failed to hit even 1 point for every $1,000 of salary. Popular wide receivers bust at an alarming rate, and we know Cooper's going to be popular on Sunday.

This puts us in a pickle. Cooper is objectively an awesome play, but there's a ton of risk around using a receiver who is on a bunch of rosters. How should we be looking to handle him?

This really does come down to personal preference and how you want to play. What can work if you're rolling out a bunch of tournament lineups is using Cooper in some of them so that you can benefit if he goes off and still give yourself a chance at netting a top prize. You can do that while still having less exposure to Cooper than the rest of the field, meaning you're safeguarded in case he does fail to meet expectations. You can put yourself in position to capitalize from a down Cooper game without avoiding him completely.

Another mark in favor of being underweight on Cooper is that you don't have to use him in order to get access to a stud in this matchup. Elliott gets a bump against this defense, too.

Elliott's receiving workload has (finally) been baller all season long, but that has gotten a kick in the rear with Cooper in the fold. Since the trade, Elliott has 21.8% of the team's overall targets and 28.6% of the red-zone targets, the same number there as Cooper. That's in addition to his monstrous work on the ground where he has averaged 22.7 carries per game.

Elliott's workload of late is easily tops in the league, and he comes at just $8,800 on FanDuel. The dude scored 25.2 FanDuel points last week without a touchdown. He's a top-tier play for both cash games and tournaments.

You can also easily pair Elliott with Prescott if you want to get a bit of exposure to Cooper without having him in your lineups. If you use these two together, you're likely getting exposure to every touchdown the Cowboys score (including those scored by Cooper as long as they come through the air). With the Colts having allowed at least 50 receiving yards to seven different running backs, you're also likely to get some double-dip action from those two.

The other option here for those looking to avoid Cooper is to use Michael Gallup. Gallup has scored double-digit FanDuel points just twice this year -- once since the Cooper trade -- but a big day is within his range of outcomes.

Even with Cooper in town, Gallup has managed to get 17.5% of the team's targets since the bye. He has at least five targets in each of those games except for one and has seen his target total rise in five straight.

The true allure of Gallup, though, is the possibility for a home run. He actually has more deep targets than Cooper in this time -- 15 to 9 -- accounting for 51.7% of the team's total deep looks. Prescott just simply hasn't been able to hit him. But with his game being indoors against a non-elite secondary, there's a chance the two could connect, and that's worth the risk with Gallup at just $5,300.