5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Tennessee Titans' Passing Offense
The narrative around the Tennessee Titans' offense is that they're volatile and impossible to trust. Given Marcus Mariota's fluctuating health, that could be true. But this is another generalization that may be a bit misleading.
If you take the Titans' offense as a whole this year, then yes, things are going to be a bit shaky. That'll happen when your quarterback is unable to grip a football and has to wear a specialized glove. There, the narrative stands up.
But as the season has gone along, Mariota's health has started to trend up. And with that, so has the consistency in Mariota as a fantasy asset and this passing offense.
Back in Week 6, Mariota got clobbered, taking 11 sacks against the Baltimore Ravens as the Titans got blanked, 21-0. That was the team's low point as it came two weeks after Mariota looked outstanding against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The following week, the Titans were in London to face the Chargers, numberFire's ninth-ranked pass defense. Mariota started to look healthy there, and it really signaled a turning point for this offense.
Let's look at Mariota's real-world efficiency from that game on before diving into what he has done in fantasy. Efficient quarterbacks generate more touchdown drives and more fantasy value for the pieces around them, so this is where we need to start our digging.
That game against the Chargers happened in Week 7. The table below shows the resume of two unnamed quarterbacks from that game on. As a spoiler alert, one of them is clearly Mariota.
| From Week 7 On | Yards Per Attempt | Completion Percentage | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback A | 9.03 | 76.9% | 0.28 | 52.5% |
| Quarterback B | 8.66 | 66.3% | 0.31 | 51.5% |
Both quarterbacks have been pretty similar with Quarterback B producing slightly more expected points per drop back than Quarterback A with Quarterback A holding the edge everywhere else.
Quarterback A is, not shockingly, Mariota. Quarterback B is Jared Goff, and that includes his backyard brouhaha with the Chiefs.
Mariota doesn't compare favorably to only Goff, obviously. If Mariota's marks above were his full-season numbers, he would rank fifth in Passing NEP per drop back and ninth in Success Rate out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. Again, this sample includes his flop against the Colts, and it includes the expected points that Mariota and company have lost due to sacks in this time.
Speaking of sacks, those shouldn't be as much of a concern in this matchup. The New York Jets rank 24th in adjusted sack rate, according to Football Outsiders, meaning Mariota should remain upright most of the game. When that has been the case, he has performed admirably.
Partially due to the pass rush -- and otherwise due to mounting injuries -- the Jets' defense has struggled overall to stop opposing passing games. They've slipped to 20th against the pass for the full season when you adjust for the schedule they've faced. And even with guys like Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine back from injury, it's not trending in the right direction.
Last week, the Jets allowed Tom Brady to rack up 15.51 Passing NEP against them, the most he has had the entire season. Matt Barkley had 15.03 Passing NEP on just 25 attempts the game before their bye week. The talent is there on paper, but they just can't seem to put it all together, which bodes well for Mariota.
That matchup plus Mariota's efficiency mean we should be into him from a fantasy perspective this week. It's possible, though, that you're still a bit skeptical due to the perceived volatility.
Perhaps it would help to take a look at what Mariota has done strictly from a fantasy perspective since their Week 8 bye. In these four games, Mariota has scored 21.8 or more FanDuel points in every game that he has completed. He finished with 22.92 on Monday night against the Houston Texans on just 23 attempts.
On top of that, Mariota will save you quite a bit on a slate where we could certainly use the extra salary. He's $7,000, and with his recent production, that should be pretty enticing.
When you're stacking with Mariota, Corey Davis is clearly going to be the guy that you'll want. But when you check out Davis' game logs, you'll see that he has just four targets in each of the past two games. Should that push us elsewhere?
It shouldn't. Let's zero in on just the five games since Mariota's play ticked upwards. Davis has had some tougher matchups in that span, but his market shares still stand out when compared to his teammates.
| Past 5 Games | FanDuel Price | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | $5,900 | 25.2% | 52.4% | 29.2% |
| Dion Lewis | $5,500 | 15.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Jonnu Smith | $5,300 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 16.7% |
| Tajae Sharpe | $5,200 | 14.4% | 4.8% | 16.7% |
Nobody comes close to this guy, and Davis is still priced at $5,900. He has scored 21.5 or more FanDuel points three times this year, and two of them have come within his past three games (the one dud being the game Mariota left early). Davis is in play for both cash games and tournaments.
Because tight end is a dumpster fire, Jonnu Smith does seem a bit interesting, but it's worth throwing out a word of caution. Smith's surge has come with Tajae Sharpe basically playing on one leg due to an ankle injury and with Taywan Taylor missing the past three games. Taylor practiced in full on Wednesday and seems likely to return on Sunday.
As such, if you're stacking with Mariota, it's likely wisest to just take the safe path and roll with Davis. If you want to save a bit more, Taylor is at least in play at $4,600 as he will be able to avoid Johnson in the slot and was getting some high-leverage targets prior to his injury. There's just no sure-fire asset here outside of Davis.
