5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Everybody loves a good narrative. If we can explain a trend by using a quick anecdote, it keeps us from thinking too critically about something and expending mental energy.
An athlete is facing their former team? They're gonna go nuts.
Tom Brady is ticked off about something trivial? Here comes a five-touchdown game.
Millennials are killing literally everything that ever existed? We'd rather say that than examine the ills of crippling student-loan debt.
A lot of these narratives will pop up in fantasy football, and sometimes, they can be correct. But if we accept them as being true without investigating, we're going to make some mistakes.
That's going to come into play for the Week 13 main slate. There are several narratives at hand that will help determine whether or not a seemingly spicy matchup is one that we can exploit or if it's one we should shy away from. It's important that we use the data to decide where we fall on that spectrum.
To help us on that mission, we'll be leaning on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP), the metric we use to track the expected points added or subtracted on each play throughout the season. NEP quantifies the difference between a three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 and a three-yard completion on 3rd and 4, allowing us to see which offenses truly operate in the most efficient manner.
Narratives aren't always wrong. Sometimes, that narrative exists for a reason. We just have to examine whether or not that's true before making decisions in fantasy football. Once we do that, which matchups should we be looking to exploit in Week 13? Let's check it out.