5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 13
Denver Broncos' Rushing Offense
The narrative around the Cincinnati Bengals is that their team is absolutely in shambles. Andy Dalton's season is over, and they've gotten just shredded in three of their past five games. That would seemingly put us onto the Denver Broncos' offense this weekend.
Here, the narrative and the data are in perfect harmony.
You don't have to dig deep into the metrics to realize that the Bengals are just bleeding production right now. Over their past six games, they've allowed an average of 36.2 points per game. Opposing teams have scored 45 or more points in a pair of those, so you know the upside is here.
To be fair to the Bengals, they've had some tough opponents in that stretch. The two teams to score 45 points were the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints, and nobody has stopped them this year. They also faced the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have numberFire's eight-ranked schedule-adjusted offense. You would expect them to struggle against those teams.
But as mentioned, numberFire's team metrics do take the strength of the opponent into account, and they don't view the Bengals in a positive light. They currently have the 21st-ranked pass defense and and 29th-ranked rush defense, and that includes the early part of the season before the defense turned to dust.
That could easily allow you to get on Case Keenum, Emmanuel Sanders and the rest of the passing offense. But based on the role he played last week, we'd be wise to give Phillip Lindsay some consideration, as well.
Against the Steelers, Lindsay played a season-high 63.2% of the snaps. It was his first time topping 60% all season long, and he did so even with Royce Freeman active. And you can pretty easily understand why.
As discussed with Moore, talent can sometimes win out. When you compare Lindsay's numbers this year with Freeman's -- while running behind the same offensive line -- you can see why Lindsay's role would start to expand. Rushing NEP per carry is the expected points added on a per-rush basis, and Rushing Success Rate measures the percentage of attempts that increase the team's expected points for the drive.
| In 2018 | Yards Per Carry | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 5.78 | 0.15 | 51.1% |
| Royce Freeman | 4.15 | 0.00 | 39.3% |
Freeman certainly hasn't been bad by any means. He's been hovering around the league averages. But Lindsay ranks second in Success Rate and sixth in Rushing NEP per carry out of 44 backs with at least 80 rushes, so it should be obvious that you want to get the ball in this guy's hands more often.
The only negative of Lindsay's game last week is that he didn't have a single target, and targets are basically a must if you want a high-upside day in DFS.
That doesn't mean Lindsay has no role in the passing game, though. He lined up in the slot or out wide on 5 of 36 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus, and ran 12 routes. He also had five targets the week prior with Freeman active, so the zero-target game seems to be just a blip on the radar.
Lindsay isn't a bargain at $7,000 on FanDuel, and his inconsistent passing-game usage pushes him out of the picture for cash games. But he's an efficient back with an increasing workload who is in a drool-worthy matchup. That's enough for us to justify putting him into our tournament rosters.
