Week 12 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
Over/Under: 51.00
Colts Implied Team Total: 29.25
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 21.75
I have to start by apologizing if you rode with me and played Carson Wentz last week. While I stick by the process wholeheartedly, the results were ugly. But hopefully you listened and played T.Y. Hilton! What a week-winning performance. The Indianapolis Colts look like a legitimately good team, led by a now-healthy franchise quarterback, top-five offensive line and exciting rookie head coach. All of that adds up to hammering the Colts side of this and doing our best to find a good play on the Miami Dolphins side.
Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $7,000
This one is pretty simple, really. Mack is a 7.5-point home favorite (does that line even seem a little low to you?) against a reeling Dolphins team. Miami ranks as the sixth-worst rushing defense in the league per numberFire's adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points model. The last time we saw them they were getting pulverized by Aaron Jones for the best rushing game of his career. Indy's offensive line ranks as the third-best run-blocking unit in creating yards according to Football Outsiders. This is a smash spot.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $8,500
Andrew Luck is certainly expensive, so this isn't a recommendation for those who refuse to pay up at quarterback. The issue is with three games on Thanksgiving, there aren't as many solid quarterback options to use this week. Luck has now thrown for 3 or more touchdown passes in seven straight games, never scoring fewer than 22 FanDuel points along the way. That makes him an excellent cash option against a Miami defense that ranks eighth-worst against the pass, per numberFire's Defensive Passing Net Expected Points model. Unless Eric Ebron runs in a touchdown again, the Luck/Mack stack aims to give you all the touchdown equity in the high-scoring Colts offense.
Others to Consider
We have to start with T.Y. Hilton ($7,500), who's price has jumped up by $700. That price jump combined with expected high ownership coming off a big game makes him a reasonable fade. That said, his matchup with Xavien Howard may tick his ownership down a little, and I'm still picking Hilton to win that matchup. In the end, he's a low-floor, high-upside GPP play with an elevated projection at home on the turf, where he averages over 3.2 more points per game throughout his career.
The season-long numbers won't show it, but Miami has been getting creamed by tight ends lately. I was right to fade Eric Ebron ($5,500) last week, but his price is down $500 and his ownership will be way down coming off a goose-egg. There are worse plays at a thin position, but he's never comfortable given his route/snap volume. I'd much rather play Jack Doyle ($5,500), who actually has the route/snap usage to hit value and was tackled on the one yard line last week.
Good luck on the Miami side. Ryan Tannehill ($6,600) is set to return. He's really cheap but he's also Ryan Tannehill. Indy's defense has allowed the seventh-fewest points to wide receivers this season. With Jakeem Grant done for the year, we know DeVante Parker ($5,400), Danny Amendola ($5,300) and Kenny Stills ($5,300) will play in three-wide sets. Good luck predicting which one, if any, hits. If forced to choose, I'd play Stills given his chemistry with Tannehill and deep-shot ability.
Frank Gore ($5,600) doesn't make much sense as a touchdown road underdog, even if his price his fine. Kenyan Drake ($5,500) is questionable with a shoulder injury and his touch counts continue to drive everyone nuts.
