2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 12
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | 1.73 | 5-5 | 36.1% | 7 | 26 | +4 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 3.11 | 5-5 | 50.0% | 13 | 13 | -2 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 3.12 | 5-4-1 | 53.5% | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 3.25 | 4-6 | 8.8% | 15 | 10 | +2 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 5.8 | 7-3 | 85.1% | 5 | 15 | -1 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 5.84 | 7-3 | 98.5% | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 6.7 | 5-5 | 37.7% | 14 | 2 | -1 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.26 | 7-2-1 | 96.2% | 8 | 8 | -2 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.57 | 9-2 | 100.0% | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 7.73 | 7-3 | 93.7% | 9 | 5 | +3 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 11.14 | 10-1 | 100.0% | 2 | 17 | -1 |
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 11.73 | 9-1 | 100.0% | 3 | 19 | +1 |
After a Week 6 loss to the Jets, the Colts were 1-5 and just 27th in our ranking, which rated them 4.2 points below average.
Since then, they have outscored opponents by 19.3 points per game (second to New Orleans during this span) and improved their nERD rating to +1.7 to move into 12th.
The Colts have been scoring and preventing opponents from doing so at an elite level, but both margins are probably somewhat inflated by an unsustainably high +8 turnover margin (only the Rams have been better since Week 7). Indianapolis has nine takeaways in this span and only one giveaway.
| Since Week 7 | Points Per Game | Rank | Points Allowed Per Game | Rank | Avg. MOV | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 36.5 | 4 | 17.3 | 3 | +19.2 | 3 |
Unless the Colts have actually morphed into the one of the best turnover teams ever (only 12 teams since 1940 have averaged at least 2.0 turnovers per game over a full season), we should expect the scoring margin to come down.
Still, the Colts' success has been more than just the result of turnover flukes, as they have also been good at moving the ball and adequate at stopping opponents from doing the same.
| Since Week 7 | Yards/Play | Rank | DY/P | Rank | Y/P Diff | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 6.6 | 3 | 5.7 | 15 | +0.9 | 7 |
The Colts also have a +7.1% success rate margin, a number that would lead the league if it were sustained over a full season.
The offensive success is particularly impressive, seeing as it has come against three top 12 defenses in yards per play; Buffalo is tied for second, Jacksonville is tied for ninth and Tennessee is tied for 12th (they also beat the Raiders, who are last in yards allowed per play).
By the same token, the offenses they faced rank 32nd, 30th, 25th and 21st, so their average yards allowed per play rank is not particularly impressive.
In any case, this run has put Indianapolis in the thick of the playoff race, something any Colts fan would have signed up for in the middle of the playoff race.
