4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 11
Wide Receiver
Chalk
Tracking the high-owned wide receivers isn't a tall order. Check out the quarterbacks slated for big days, and the wideouts are likely to follow.
As we outlined in the quarterback section, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have fared poorly against the pass this season, and Odell Beckham could be ready to go off. He's posted 20-plus FanDuel points in three of his last five contests, and he has to be salivating at the prospect of facing this D.
New Orleans Saints wide receivers should be chalky, too -- and that means Michael Thomas is likely to be a heavy-owned wideout. The Philadelphia Eagles have really struggled against aerial attacks this season, allowing the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers (34.1 points per game). Don't sleep on a cheap asset like Tre'Quan Smith ($4,900) being popular either.
Pivot
John Brown, Baltimore Ravens: $5,400 (vs Cincinnati Bengals)
Despite some confusion around who may start at quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, their wide receiving corps presents a nice upside opportunity, largely due to poor play from AFC North rival Cincinnati, who they face in Week 11.
In the last four weeks, in which the Bengals have skidded to a 1-3 record, coach Marvin Lewis' defense has allowed a whopping 158 points (39.5 points-per-game), including 11 touchdown passes. In peeking at those four weeks a little closer, the efficiency was a bit staggering for each opposing signal-caller as compared to the remainder of their respective 2018 seasons.
| Name | Week | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Single Game Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 0.40 | 3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 0.54 | 3 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 8 | 0.89 | 2 |
| Drew Brees | 10 | 0.90 | 1 |
While we are still waiting to see if it's Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III under center, there's clearly upside potential here, and John Brown has been extremely efficient all season long. Among the 52 wide receivers with 50 or more targets in 2018, Brown ranks 12th in Reception Success Rate (91.18%). And while he has been quiet the last two weeks, logging a combined 6 catches for 43 yards, fear not -- he still ranks third in Targeted Air Yards (17.6, TAY) and 10th in TAY % (35.68%), meaning the big play is certainly there.
This week, we project Brown for 9.5 FanDuel points but with some major upside at 19.5 points. And don't forget he popped the Saints for 22.9 FanDuel points just a few weeks ago, so a big scoring effort isn't out of the question, even if it comes in a loss.
