5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9
New Orleans Saints' Rushing Offense
Wade Phillips is a smart dude. The Rams' defensive coordinator understands that passing is more efficient than rushing. As such, a defense is wise to sell out to stop the pass, even if it means giving up a bit extra on the ground.
That's why -- despite having Aaron Donald up front -- the Rams' defense ranked 30th in rushing yards per attempt allowed last year. This year, they're 26th against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics.
From a long-term outlook perspective, this is a sharp plan of attack for Phillips. It just might get him into trouble against an offense that is more than happy to attack a defense via that manner.
In three games since Mark Ingram's return from suspension, the Saints have been aggressive on the ground, running 77 times with Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined while allowing Drew Brees to throw just 82 times. Part of that is also due to game script, but there's no debating that this team has been more run-heavy of late.
This is a game where the script could dictate a different approach, and that's why we very much need to have Brees on our tournament rosters, as well. There's also a scenario, though, where the Saints just try to pound the Rams into submission.
Not only have the Saints been efficient on the ground this year -- they're eighth in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play -- but there's an added bonus of going that route this weekend, even before we discuss the nature of the Rams' defense. If the Saints do run the ball aggressively, the clock will just keep churning, potentially leading to longer drives. That keeps Goff, Gurley, and the Saints' leaky defense on the sidelines. The Saints are good enough to keep pace in a shootout, but they could very well choose to just avoid that route entirely.
With all of these factors swirling at once, there is a scenario in which the Saints decide to put the ball in the hands of their running backs and play keepaway while allowing those backs to rack up major volume. If that does happen, we're going to want a piece of the action.
Based on what happened last week, this would seem to get us back in on Kamara after a couple of down games. Against the Minnesota Vikings, Kamara played 71.7% of the snaps and handled 13 carries with 8 targets. Giving that type of usage to someone this electric in a scoring environment this friendly for fantasy easily makes him worth his $8,000 salary on FanDuel.
On top of that, Kamara's the guy getting the work when the Saints are in close. In the past two games, Kamara has three carries and a target from inside the five-yard line while Ingram has just one carry. There were causes for concern with Kamara before, but based on the past two games, we should feel good about turning back his direction.
That's not to completely push Ingram off the radar, though.
The $7,400 salary for Ingram makes him unappealing given his role since the bye week. In addition to the lost volume near the goal line, Ingram has just 12 and 13 carries in the two games and 5 total targets, which is a good chunk below Kamara without much of a discount. That doesn't mean things will stay that way.
If the Saints do decide to go with the ground-and-pound mentality to exploit Phillips' scheme and keep the Rams' offense out of the equation, that's a script that could very well set up for more Ingram usage. Given the quarterback and the offensive line that he is tied to, that's pretty enticing.
If you want to do just one tournament lineup, and you decide to go here, then Kamara's absolutely the guy. He is the more talented back, and he's getting more high-leverage usage. But if you decide to go with multiple tournament entries, there's a scenario in which Ingram is the guy to own in this backfield. It's wise to put yourself in position to take advantage if that does happen, using both if you wind up tossing out multiple lineups.
