2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 5
Teams Ranked 32nd to 22nd
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoffs | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Buffalo Bills | -8.67 | 1-3 | 3.6% | 32 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | -5.14 | 3-1 | 31.1% | 22 | 24 | -12 |
| 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4.09 | 2-2 | 16.9% | 7 | 31 | -10 |
| 29 | New York Giants | -3.45 | 1-3 | 9.4% | 25 | 22 | -4 |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.43 | 1-3 | 13.4% | 21 | 9 | 1 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | -3.2 | 1-3 | 16.1% | 16 | 28 | -3 |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.84 | 1-3 | 11.5% | 30 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 | Cleveland Browns | -2.49 | 1-2-1 | 8.9% | 31 | 2 | -7 |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | -2.12 | 2-2 | 30.2% | 24 | 23 | -3 |
| 22 | Oakland Raiders | -1.73 | 1-3 | 8.4% | 6 | 25 | +8 |
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | -1.73 | 3-1 | 46.9% | 23 | 14 | +5 |
After promising starts, Week 4 hit both Miami and Tampa Bay like a ton of bricks, though our model was not super enthused about either one of them to begin with. The Dolphins came into the week ranked 19th and the Buccaneers were 20th.
Miami was steamrolled by the Patriots 38-7, and the underlying numbers suggest the scoreline was every bit as lopsided as it should have been. New England had a 277-yard edge in terms of total yards, a 4.2 yards per play advantage, and an offensive success rate that was +12.5% higher (success rate measures the percentage of plays that yield positive Net Expected Points (you can read more about success rate and NEP in our glossary).
This level of whooping was enough to undo much of what had brought their rating back into the middle of the pack.
The Bucs fell 48-10 to Chicago and were out-gained by 172 yards and 3.1 yards per play, while posting a minus-18.4% success rate differential (the lowest of the week). On the season as a whole, their offense still has a very good rating, but anything short of excellent on that side of the ball will not be enough to offset the play of their atrocious defense.
