2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 5
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoffs | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 1.9 | 1-2-1 | 31.8% | 11 | 26 | -8 |
| 11 | New Orleans Saints | 2 | 3-1 | 66.8% | 5 | 30 | -2 |
| 10 | Carolina Panthers | 2.15 | 2-1 | 54.2% | 20 | 7 | 0 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.34 | 1-2-1 | 21.1% | 19 | 15 | -3 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 2.4 | 3-1 | 70.4% | 13 | 5 | +5 |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.64 | 3-1 | 70.5% | 3 | 19 | +9 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3.07 | 2-2 | 53.4% | 27 | 6 | -3 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 3.49 | 2-2 | 46.1% | 9 | 20 | +3 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 5.04 | 2-2 | 84.8% | 8 | 17 | +7 |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.78 | 3-1 | 74.8% | 12 | 3 | +2 |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 6.22 | 3-1 | 65.4% | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 9.4 | 4-0 | 94.7% | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Our model is still not ready to give up on the Steelers, who are clinging to a spot in the Top 10.
Pittsburgh, which has been outscored by 14 points this year, has hardly lived up to its preseason rank (fifth) and its playoff odds have dropped by 46.5 percentage points from the start of the season. Since it's still early in the campaign, we should put some stock into that preseason rating, but even if we only look at 2018 performance, Pittsburgh looks more like an average team than the bad one its record and point differential indicate.
Only the Bengals have played a more difficult schedule, yet the Steelers still rate as about average in terms of yards per play differential (0) and above average in success rate margin (2.2%).
Even after opponent adjustments, their NEP differential is just 15th, but this is influenced in part by their -2 turnover differential. Pittsburgh’s offense seems to be a bit unlucky to lose four of its six fumbles (though its defense has recovered half of its opponents’ six fumbles).
Third down failures are also playing a part, as after ranking second in the league in third-down conversion rate on offense last year, Pittsburgh is just 28th this year. The turnover margin and third-down struggles are both impacting Pittsburgh’s point differential, as are its special teams, which rank 24th in NEP.
These factors tend not to be predictive in small samples and we should expect some regression to the mean here. This, combined with improved performance from players with proven track records, should help things get back on track in the Steel City.
