4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 4

Running Back

Chalk

Until Alvin Kamara cools off (assuming that ever happens), he's going to continue to be a staple of a large portion lineups on a weekly basis. His on-field performance speaks volumes, and you don't need me to write 500 words describing while people will be using him. He's good. You get it.

Another player likely on people's radars this week is rookie Saquon Barkley. The second-overall pick of this year's draft has not disappointed in the early going this season. Barkley has scored a minimum of 17.8 FanDuel points in each of his three games, meaning that he's easily returned over 2 FanDuel points per $1,000 in all three.

This week's matchup seems tough looking at averages; the Saints are giving up the third-fewest FanDuel points to running backs this season. Saints' opponents are often forced into shootouts, which can take the running game out of the picture.

A guy like Barkley, however, should be able to render that narrative moot. We've seen his receiving skills on display early this season, exemplified by a 14-catch Week 2 outing against the Dallas Cowboys. His 27 targets this season are second only to Kamara, and his 21 receptions rank third (Christian McCaffrey). We'd expect fellow receiving threat Giovani Bernard to see solid ownership of his own in a plus matchup against the injury-riddled Atlanta Falcons defense this week.

Pivot

Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers: $8,700 (vs San Francisco 49ers)

Look, I'm not saying Melvin Gordon's ownership is going to be low, per se. Heck, he will probably be one of the top-five backs owned. With so many people focused on Kamara, Barkley, and (likely) Ezekiel Elliott, however, this has the feeling of a week where Gordon's ownership might be 20-25% when his recent performances and upcoming matchup should instead call for ownership levels 20% higher.

After two huge weeks to start the season, Gordon took a step back in a difficult Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. A step back for Gordon, however, sill means 80 rushing yards and a score. He's the only player to have topped even 50 rushing yards against the Rams' imposing rushing defense this season.

This week Gordon gets a much more attractive matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Even though they, too, have not allowed a rusher to gain more than 50 yards on the ground, they've been vulnerable to receiving backs.

Three running backs have at least five catches in a game against them, and their 26 catches allowed to the position ranked as the fourth-most entering this week's games. Gordon already has 17 receptions on 24 targets this year.

Our models project Gordon as the third-highest scoring FanDuel back on the Sunday main slate. We have his upside marked at 36.1, which would mean a potential value of 4.15 FanDuel points per $1,000. With a likely relatively low ownership compared to some of the other high-end options, that's a recipe for tournament success.