5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 2
Los Angeles Chargers' Rushing Offense
Road favorites are always a risky proposition, especially when that favored team has to fly across the country for a 1 pm Eastern start. But Melvin Gordon could be viable in DFS even if the Chargers were to fall behind the Buffalo Bills.
Gordon's appeal should the Chargers be in front is pretty obvious, and there's a decent bet this does wind up happening. The Chargers are favored by 7.5, the third-largest favorites on the main slate. Based on the Bills' 47-3 drubbing in Week 1, it's easy to understand why.
A lead for the Chargers would give Gordon plenty of rushing volume. He handled 15 of 21 running-back carries in Week 1 as the Chargers played catch-up with the Chiefs.
That ground-game volume would be coming against a team that had the worst schedule-adjusted rushing defense in the league last year, according to numberFire's metrics. We should expect the Bills to be better than that this year with first-round pick Tremaine Edmunds in the fold, but those gains weren't apparent in the opener.
The Bills faced 24 running back carries against the Baltimore Ravens last week. On those 24 carries, the Ravens had a 45.8% Success Rate, which measures the percentage of carries that increase the expected points for the drive. The league-average Rushing Success Rate for running backs last year was 38.1%, meaning the Bills were still well below average in that contest.
Efficiency has never been a major strength for Gordon, but that could change this year. The team made Dan Feeney the starter at left guard midway through last year, and he seemed to ignite the offense. According to The Quant Edge's injury tool, the Chargers averaged 3.92 yards per carry with Feeney in there compared to 3.56 with him on the sidelines. They also added Mike Pouncey in the offseason, and the duo helped Gordon and Austin Ekeler combine for a 55.0% Success Rate in Week 1.
That's why we should love Gordon, assuming the Chargers get out front. But what if the road-favorite narrative bites and they fall behind?
As Gordon showed last week, that's not an issue. The Chargers trailed pretty much the entire game, but Gordon still managed 28 opportunities thanks to a career-high 13 targets. Head coach Anthony Lynn told ESPN's Dan Graziano that he wanted Gordon to get more work as a receiver, and Lynn followed through in a big way against the Chiefs.
This is huge for both Gordon's floor and his ceiling. The targets allow Gordon to remain on the field, accumulating points even if the Chargers are forced to abandon the rush. They help his ceiling because each target is worth twice as much as a carry on half-PPR sites like FanDuel. Gordon had 166 yards from scrimmage in Week 1 even though his team fell behind, so it's exciting to see what he could do if the Chargers were to get out front.
Gordon's no bargain by any means at $8,200 on FanDuel, but he could still be a hair underpriced. His usage harkens back to what David Johnson did in 2016, and Johnson was regularly priced above $9,000. With the way things are lining up for Gordon, it's not a bad idea to start buying him aggressively until that price comes up, starting with this week against Buffalo.
