5 Running Backs With Major Touchdown Upside for 2018
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
I know there's been a ton of Chris Carson hype lately, but with Carson's tiny 49-carry sample at the NFL level and Rashaad Penny being taken in the first round, Penny looks like he will be the top dog in the Seattle Seahawks' backfield. numberFire's projections agree with this idea, projecting Penny for about 132 more carries than Carson.
Breaking down that backfield is really an article unto itself, and for the purposes of this piece, it's not super important who the lead back is, as this slide could just as easily be titled "Seattle RB1". If you're firmly Team Carson for the lead-back role, you can read this the exact same way but just swap out Penny for Carson.
The Seahawks were one of the NFL's most pass-heavy teams inside the 20 last year, with a 1.65-to-1 pass-to-run ratio. There has been a big personnel overhaul in the offense, though, and they will be without their first- and second-most targeted red zone weapons in Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson. Those were the only two players in the offense with double-digit red zone targets, with Graham's 26 and Richardson's 11 combining for a 52.1% market share. Adding in other players who have left Seattle, 62% of their red zone targets from last year are vacant.
They haven't exactly brought in the personnel to replace these weapons, either, with Ed Dickson and Brandon Marshall the only real new faces in the passing game. If we go back to 2014 (their last season before Graham arrived), they were the fourth-most run-heavy red zone team, and even if things don't get that extreme in 2018, they certainly look to be trending that way with the dearth of receiving targets.
Seahawks running backs totaled 37 carries inside the 20 last season, and Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy vacate 21 (57%) of those. They made an effort to feature their ineffective lead backs in scoring range, but not a single one of the team's running backs scored a rushing touchdown from the red zone.
The fact that Rawls and Lacy were allowed to account for such a large share of the work despite both finishing with negative rushing yards on those touches is a good sign that Penny's workload in scoring range will likely be more dependent on not playing himself out of the role, rather than having to prove himself worthy in the first place.
