Week 17 FanDuel NFL Tournament Pivots

Quarterback

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Ah, Week 17. Confusion. Chaos. It's a mess. Fortunately, we're in the DFS world and don't have to deal with the nonsense that comes with Week 17 championships in season-long leagues. We have some clarity at this point. Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger won't suit up. Tom Brady and Nick Foles likely will, but they could always exit before the end of the game. With those names off the board, we first want to look at who has something to play for this week.

The number one name that comes to mind is Russell Wilson. At $8,700, he's the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but the Seattle Seahawks need a win for a shot at the playoffs. He will come out firing against an Arizona Cardinals defense that gives up the 13th-most FanDuel points per game. Other quarterbacks with big incentive to play well this week include Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan. Ryan may not have been a popular play any other week given his mediocre 2017, but Atlanta is into the playoffs with a win, and he had his biggest game of the season against the Carolina Panthers in Week 9.

At the cheap end, we are looking at fill-in plays. The most popular, by far, should be Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid has already told us that Alex Smith is sitting, which means the former Texas Tech player is going to get his first NFL start against the Denver Broncos. Sure, the matchup isn't ideal, but Mahomes could very well be auditioning for the Chiefs' 2018 starting job. He's going to be motivated, and at only $6,000, that means a lot of people will be willing to take a punt on him.

Pivots

Matthew Stafford, $7,800 (vs Green Bay Packers)

First off, Jim Caldwell has stated that Matthew Stafford will play this week. We have no reason to doubt him, but this is Week 17, so take all comments with a grain of salt. If you have a low tolerance for risk, then stick to a player who's in a must-win game. If your risk tolerance is higher, then it would be silly to not consider Stafford in a matchup in which he consistently performs.

The Green Bay Packers have given up the eighth-most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. In the last five weeks, they've given up the most. This is despite giving up only 139 passing yards to Case Keenum in Week 16. Stafford's history of dominance against Green Bay speaks for itself. He's scored at least 20.9 FanDuel points against them in five of his past eight and had only one dud, a 6.6-point effort in September 2014. He has multiple passing scores against them in his past six games and seven of eight. In three season-ending games, he has scored 20.9, 21.6, and 40.8 points in that magical 2012 game that convinced the Seahawks to waste $26 million on Matt Flynn.

Simply put, it's hard to bet against him this week, and it's especially enticing to use him as his great matchup is being cloaked by all of the narratives in other games. For tournament pivots, he's exactly the type of player who should be targeted.

Jacoby Brissett, $6,600 (vs Houston Texans)

If you don't want to buy into Mahomes Mania, consider Jacoby Brissett. At $6,600, he's only $6000 more than the Kansas City rookie, and he has a much more attractive matchup against a Houston Texans defense that he already dominated once this season.

Houston has been hemorrhaging points to quarterbacks since Tom Brady tore them apart in Week 3. When J.J. Watt left the picture against the Chiefs in Week 5, they became quarterback streaming target numero uno. In Week 9, Brissett showed his mettle and shredded the Texans' defense to the tune of 308 yards and 2 scores (both to T.Y. Hilton, another great target this week). The Texans have done nothing since then to prove that they can stop a repeat performance. Our metrics don't think they will, either, as we project Brissett to return the third-highest value of any quarterback on the slate.