5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
Carolina Panthers' Rushing Offense
As mentioned, this game be delectable. While you could make a great case for continuing to ride Cam Newton, the matchup is pristine for Christian McCaffrey.
The Panthers enter this game as 3.5-point underdogs, and we generally want our running backs to be on teams that are favored. With McCaffrey, though, things are clearly a bit different. This is another aspect that plays right into his strengths.
We're heading into the final game of the year, and we've still yet to see a game in which McCaffrey has logged fewer than four targets. He's at 22.8% of the team's targets for the season, which easily leads all running backs. A shoulder injury forced him to pedal it back a few weeks ago, but his market share is still 18.8% over the past three weeks.
That number could get a little boost against this Falcons defense. They've allowed 101 receptions to running backs while no other team has allowed more than 94. There have been 13 different instances in which a running back recorded at least five targets against them, including McCaffrey with six back in Week 9. They funnel volume to his strength, and each target gives us a chance at the half-point bonus for a reception on FanDuel.
This is in addition to some expanded work as a rusher, as well. Through the first eight games, McCaffrey had 29.3% of the team's running-back carries, ceding most of that work over to Jonathan Stewart. Since then, McCaffrey's share has increased to 38.5%, which may not seem like a lot, but it definitely makes a difference when you're as dynamic as this guy.
What makes that even more intriguing for McCaffrey is that it has come with a jump in his efficiency. Here's that same split for McCaffrey, this time looking at what he has done from a production perspective. Rushing NEP per carry shows the expected points he has added on a per-carry basis, and Success Rate is the percentage of carries that increase the team's expected points for the drive.
| McCaffrey's Efficiency | Rushes | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 8 Games | 49 | -0.23 | 26.53% |
| Past 7 Games | 62 | 0.09 | 48.39% |
This is what the Panthers wanted when they drafted McCaffrey in the first round back in April. He's becoming more of a two-dimensional asset, and that's huge for his DFS value.
McCaffrey should be able to maintain that efficiency in this matchup. The Falcons rank 21st against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. Once you toss in all the volume they allow through the air to opposing backs, it becomes pretty clear that Atlanta is the ideal opponent for McCaffrey.
So, with McCaffrey, we know we'll get volume, and that volume should get a boost because of Atlanta's defense. His efficiency is allowing that volume to carry extra oomph. All we're lacking is touchdown upside, but he's got that, too.
McCaffrey has been getting looks near the end zone all year. He has 24.1% of the team's red-zone targets along with 15.3% of their rushes. Although they have other assets there, McCaffrey doesn't simply disappear once the team gets close. It's what puts him over the top for DFS.
McCaffrey's just $6,900 for Week 17, down from $7,300 in Week 16 and as high as $7,700 back in Week 10. This comes after he played 80.0% of the snaps last week -- his second-highest rate of the year -- which came in a script that would seemingly favor Stewart. If you're not paying down for one of the scrubs, McCaffrey's going to be hard to forgo in this spot.
