Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 10

Start Christian McCaffrey as a Favorite

The Carolina Panthers are favored by 10 points over the Miami Dolphins. We usually like to target running backs on teams that are heavily favored because they are likely going to be running the ball with a lead.

Christian McCaffrey is a rookie, so we have very little data to reflect how he performs in these situations. However, we have data going back to 2011 showing that head coach Ron Rivera tends to run more when the Panthers are favored to win.

Per the Rotoviz Team Splits App, Rivera rushes close to 33 times in games where the Panthers were favored by seven or more points. The rushing yards also increase up to about 141 per game. What if Carolina is favored by double digits like they are this Sunday?

It's a small sample size of just three games, but they've averaged 35 carries per game in those contests.

McCaffrey has done most of his damage as a receiving threat. But after seven straight games of single-digit carries, he led the Panthers rushing attack with 15 carries last week and also notched a rushing touchdown. His teammate Jonathan Stewart ran 11 times for 21 yards and lost 2 fumbles. Yuck.

McCaffrey will be looking to build off of last week's outing and Rivera is likely to give him the bulk of the carries again. Run-CMC is priced at $6,400 which ranks 16th among running backs making him a safe play in all formats.