Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Start the Jets' Defense in a Game With a Low Over/Under

In the words of Sheila Broflovski: WHAT WHAT WHAT?!

Yes, the New York Jets D/ST is worth our attention this Sunday. The Jets are 3.0-point home underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars. While I almost always prefer taking a D/ST that is favored, the Jets are worth a look because of their price.

Gang Green is priced at $4,100, which ranks 28th among defenses and is only $100 more than the FanDuel minimum. On the contrary, the Jacksonville D/ST is priced at $5,200 which ranks second.

The total in this game is only 38 points, the lowest on the weekend slate. Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. So, it could be slightly better with a total coming in slightly lower than that.

According to the Behind the Bets podcast on ESPN, Blake Bortles is a road favorite for the first time. This snaps a 44-game streak for the Jags, which is the second longest streak in NFL history. Are we really prepared to bet on Bortles as a road favorite?

Speaking of Bortles, his performance in games with low totals (41 points or lower) is unsurprisingly worse than his other games. In nine games with the total at 41 points or less, Bortles averaged just 16.1 fantasy points per game -- five points lower than his average in other games.

I only recommend the Jets' defense as a tournament play because of the risk involved.