Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 3

Start the Eagles' Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 3, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Philadelphia Eagles are six-point home favorites against the New York Giants. Sunday's divisional disagreement is not only interesting because the Eagles are relatively large favorites, but also because of the slowly declining game total. The game opened at an already low total of 43.5 and has slightly dropped to 42 points.

Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 42.5 and 45.5 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 7.80 fantasy points per game.

It's also worth noting that this game opened with the Eagles favored by five points but it has since sprouted to a six-point spread. One point can't mean much, right?

According to Sports Insights, six is the fourth most common margin of victory in the NFL. Games end in a six-point margin about 6.9% (nice?) of the time. Many bookmakers and bettors alike refer to six as a key number.

These line movements both move in favor of the Philadelphia D/ST, who are priced at $4,500 on FanDuel and rank13th among defenses. The Eagles are an inexpensive option who get to tee off on Eli Manning and his teammates who are coming off short rest after losing on Monday night.