Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 3

Start Mike Gillislee as a Heavy Favorite

After getting lambasted in Week 1, the New England Patriots went bonkers in Week 2 and reminded the league why they are still the best.

This week, they are 13.5-point favorites versus the Houston Texans, making them the largest favorites of the weekend. Several Patriots players are in-play this weekend, but I'd like to focus our attention on running back Mike Gillislee.

With most players, we have a sample size of games that can tell us how they perform when favored. We have one season of Gillislee playing second fiddle to Lesean McCoy in Buffalo. In 2016, Gillislee averaged a little over one more half-PPR point per game when the Bills were favored, but that score was just an average of 8.86 half-PPR points.

Let's focus on is Gillislee's role in this offense, though, where he has essentially claimed the LeGarrette Blount running back role.

If we look at Blount's stats in the two seasons after quitting on the Pittsburgh Steelers, he scored more points when the Patriots were favored. His points scored also tended to grow with the point spread.

For example, during the 2015 and 2016 seasons, Blount averaged a respectable 12.54 half-PPR points per game. When the Pats were favored by three points, his averaged barely rose to 12.6. However, if we make the spread seven points or higher, Blount averaged 13.47 points in 20 games.

If the spread was 10-plus points, that average rose to 16.75 points per game. And if we take that spread to Sunday's current spread of 13.5, Blount averaged 19.6 half-PPR points per game in four opportunities. Baby, you got a stew goin'.

As of this writing, teammate Rex Burkhead is questionable to play Sunday leaving more backfield touches to Gillislee. His price of $6,800 is tied for the 12th-most expensive running back on FanDuel, but he definitely has that top-five upside with a relatively safe floor.