NFL

Week 2 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

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Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets

Over/Under: 43.5
Raiders Implied Team Total: 28.50
Jets Implied Team Total: 15.00

This game isn't going to jump off the page from an over/under perspective, actually coming in as one of the lowest on the slate. However, the Oakland Raiders actually have the slate's second-highest implied team total and are favored by an absurd 13.5 points. Welcome to the travesty that is the 2017 New York Jets.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders

FanDuel Price: $7,200

While his final line wasn't anything special because he failed to reach the end zone, Marshawn Lynch sure appeared to be "back" in Week 1.


There isn't any recent game script data to pull on Marshawn after he sat out last season and has played just one game for the Oakland, but that doesn't mean there isn't relevant data to be found! This is fantasy football; there is always data, my friends.

As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."

We can also look at how the Raiders have utilized their backs -- specifically former lead back Latavius Murray in similar game scripts. Last season, exactly half of Murray's 14 games were Oakland wins by at least one score. In such games, he saw an average boost of 2.4 carries and 4.4 FanDuel points. In three games in which Oakland won by double digits, he averaged 19.3 rushing attempts and an unprecedented 24.8 FanDuel points. That average was fueled by an unsustainable 2.3 touchdowns per game, but goes to show the clear scoring upside this offense presents to their lead back in huge wins.

Lynch should have no trouble finding room early and often against a formerly stout run defense that saw Lesean McCoy and Mike Tolbert combine for 213 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown last week. He is a terrific play in all formats.

Oakland Defense

FanDuel Price: $5,300

Oakland D/ST may seem a bit expensive on FanDuel compared to DraftKings, but don't let that scare you off them.

Not only are they an awesome standalone play against a Jets offense with just a 15-point implied team total, but they also make for a perfect correlation play with Lynch. If you expect the game script to play out the way the Vegas lines expect, New York should have a tough time getting much going on offense.

If that is the case, the Raiders should get up early, which should lead to Lynch getting fed in this spot. So, a strong showing from the Oakland defense will likely lead to a strong showing from Lynch. Stack em up!

Others to Consider

Amari Cooper ($7,900) is almost always in play as a tournament option due to his big-play ability, and after watching him see four targets from within the 10-yard line last week, his scoring potential in this game is through the roof. The only real concern with playing any of Derek Carr ($8,300), Cooper, or Michael Crabtree ($7,300) is that Oakland could build an early lead and go with a more conservative game plan.

On the Jets side of the ball, there really isn't much to like, especially after the strong showing from Oakland's defense against what should be a high-powered Tennessee Titans offense last week. Lynch and the Oakland defense are two of the strongest plays on the slate, but after that, the plays in this game are all tournament options.