Week 2 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
Over/Under: 53.50
Falcons Implied Team Total: 28.00
Packers Implied Team Total: 25.50
The other game on the slate with an over/under greater than 50 points is a matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers. This is the only game with two teams that possess top-10 implied team totals, which makes it a terrific option for a game stack.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $8,200
Brady looks to be an awesome play, but Matt Ryan should get his fair share of attention at a $1,000 discount. Ryan was highly efficient last week, but wasn't required to do much in a game the Falcons ran the sixth-fewest plays in the league. The Falcons may feel the need to air it out more frequently in what is expected to be a shootout, especially considering Green Bay was much better against the run than the pass last season. The Packers ranked as the league's third-best run defense according to our metrics in 2016, but were the ninth-worst against the pass.
As to be expected, Ryan has played better at home, averaging 20 more passing yards and 0.2 more touchdowns there since 2015. He's also performed much better in projected shootouts during that time, averaging 22.1 FanDuel points in such games, as opposed to 17.7 in all others.
In a positive game script and an above-average on-paper matchup, Ryan is certainly worth a look in any format.
Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Price: $6,500
Remember that Tarik Cohen guy going bananas in Week 1 and costing you all of your free agent bucks this week? That was against this Falcons defense, and not to take anything away from Twitter's favorite new running back, but Ty Montgomery is a better version of him (from a fantasy perspective).
Hopefully, you checked out that entire market share article referenced last slide, because it is full of useful information. In case you missed it, though, the headline of the article was Fantasy Football Week 1 Market Share Report: Ty Montgomery Is a Workhorse. As Sannes pointed out, this is not the Montgomery we saw last year (from a usage standpoint) -- he handled 19 of 21 running back carries and played 90.2% of the offensive snaps, which was more than he did in any game last season.
He turned that usage into 17.3 FanDuel points despite a tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. As we mentioned with Cohen prior to his explosion last week, "not only was Atlanta the fifth-worst team against the run last year according to our metrics, but they were unable to cover opposing backs out of the backfield. They allowed more targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns to running backs than any team in the league. Opposing backs averaged 6.8 catches for 54.4 yards per game against them."
The Chicago Bears then went on to target their running backs 17 times for 11 catches, 61 yards, and a touchdown.
Green Bay is expected to keep this game competitive, but they are currently listed as underdogs. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see Aaron Rodgers approach the 42 pass attempts he threw last week. With Jordy Nelson likely to be blanketed by Desmond Trufant, and both Randall Cobb and Davante Adams also in tough individual matchups against Brian Poole and Robert Alford, respectively, Rodgers could definitely look to his backs more than the four times he did against Seattle. Montgomery should get all the work he can handle and is arguably the top point-per-dollar running back play on the slate.
Others to Consider
The Atlanta backfield was treated like much more of a committee than Devonta Freeman owners likely would have wanted last week. When combined with a matchup against a tough Packers run defense, it is tough to envision paying $8,100 for the touchdown machine, even in a positive game script. Tevin Coleman's price ($5,700) makes him a decent big-play potential dart throw in tournaments, but there are better on-paper plays.
If attacking the Green Bay defense, it should be through the air, so Julio Jones ($8,800) finds himself in a terrific bounce-back spot. The fact that Mohamed Sanu ($5,300) nearly doubled Jones' target output in Week 1 (nine to five) is concerning, especially considering Jones' juicy on-paper matchup against Marcus Cooper. Don't let that keep you off Jones if stacking this game, though. His upside is through the roof and stacking him with the likes of Ryan and Montgomery makes a lot of sense.
If targeting a Green Bay pass-catcher, Cobb ($6,300) is likely your best option. He comes at a discount to both Nelson ($8,100) and Adams ($6,700), despite leading the team in targets last week (13). He is a fine play in a game that should have plenty of fantasy goodness to go around.
