Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under: 47.0
Browns Implied Team Total: 19.50
Steelers Implied Team Total: 27.50

If skimming over the over/unders for this slate, this game isn't going to jump off the page. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers possess the second-highest implied team total on the slate, so home/road splits be damned, we're going in on the Steelers!

Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

FanDuel Price: $9,300

In case you haven't heard, the Steelers are #good at playing football when they are at home. The below table shows the home/road splits with regard to FanDuel points for Pittsburgh's Big Four over the last three seasons.

Notice anything that stands out? That's right! Le'Veon Bell doesn't care for your splits, actually being slightly more dominant on the road.

According to the Rotoviz Game Splits App, the Steelers have only been eight-point favorites one other time over the past three seasons. However, in games where they were favored by at least one touchdown, Bell averaged 160 scrimmage yards and 21.5 FanDuel points, as opposed to 134 and 20.6, respectively, in other games.

In his only 2016 meeting with Cleveland, whom our analytics ranked 27th against the run, Bell was entrusted with 36 touches, which he turned into 201 scrimmage yards and 30.1 FanDuel points. The game script in this one suggests he has that type of a ceiling again. Our projections agree with that, listing him as the top-scoring fantasy running back this week.

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

FanDuel Price: $9,100

Antonio Brown has straight-up disrespected the Browns over the years, torching them for an average of 134 yards and 24.6 FanDuel points in their past three meetings. If his past performance in similar game scripts is any indication, it will be more of the same in this one.

Over the last two seasons, Brown has averaged a line of 8.6 catches, 112 yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 22.7 FanDuel points when Pittsburgh was favored by one touchdown, as opposed to 16 FanDuel points in all other games. When the Steelers actually won by at least eight points, he averaged 20.4 FanDuel points.

With so much potential to spend up at the running back position this week and constant murmurs of Pittsburgh's road struggles, Brown may not see quite the ownership that he should. Don't let that deter you from getting some exposure, though. There is not a receiver with a clearer path to success this week.

Others to Consider

You could do worse than rolling with DeShone Kizer ($6,000) against a Pittsburgh pass defense that ranked 21st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play last season, but if getting exposure to the Cleveland Browns passing attack, your money is probably best spent on the likes of Kenny Britt ($6,000) or Corey Coleman ($5,700).

Coleman was targeted heavily against Pittsburgh last year (21 targets in two games), but turned those looks into just 79 yards and 13.3 FanDuel points. He has the game-breaking ability to justify a tournament dart throw, but is nothing more than that. Britt, however, is coming off a season in which he somehow amassed 1,002 yards with Jared Goff under center and finished 10th among 100-target receivers in Reception NEP per target (0.78). In a game in which Cleveland will likely be playing from behind, Britt makes the most sense as a correlation pairing in any tournament game stacks.

If forced to pick one of the Cleveland backs, my money would be on Duke Johnson ($5,600), who is cheaper than Isaiah Crowell ($6,500) and more likely to benefit from the negative game script. In his career, Johnson has actually averaged more FanDuel points in games the Browns were at least one-score underdogs, averaging 8.5 points, as opposed to 6.9 in other games. That was thanks in large part to the 5.3 targets per game he saw when Cleveland was at least a six-point dog, up from 3.6 in all other games.

With Cleveland listed as heavy underdogs and facing a Pittsburgh team that allowed the second-most receiving yards and third-most receiving touchdowns to opposing backs among teams on this slate, Johnson could be a lot more involved than his price tag would suggest.