Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
Over/Under: 53.50
Falcons Implied Team Total: 28.00
Packers Implied Team Total: 25.50
Next, we take a visit to the Windy City, which will play host to the slate's highest projected scoring team, the Atlanta Falcons. While regression is almost certainly on the way for Atlanta's ludicrously efficient 2016 offense, Vegas doesn't expect it to be in their Week 1 matchup with the Chicago Bears.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $8,300
With plenty of value to go around in contests that were priced nearly a month ago, most people are going to do their best to fit in one of David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell, and for good reason. However, don't let that keep you from also giving plenty of attention to fellow high-priced back, Devonta Freeman, who has potentially the best game script of any back this week.
As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."
This trend has held true for Freeman, who averaged 19.6 FanDuel points in games Atlanta was favored over the past two seasons, as opposed to 14.3 in all other games. Chicago was also our worst graded run defense last year, ranking dead-last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. Freeman has a very strong case as one of -- if not the -- top running back plays on this slate.
Kendall Wright, WR, Chicago Bears
FanDuel Price: $5,200
It only took four years of waiting, but Kendall Wright truthers can finally come crawling back into the daylight. Wright finds himself reunited with Dowell Loggains, the offensive coordinator who force-fed him in 2013, in which he totaled 1,079 yards and averaged 8.7 targets per game. Not only that, but the Bears' roster heading into this game only accounts for 44.7% of last season's targets!
Some will continue to chase the "potential" of Kevin White ($5,600), who was one of the league's worst receivers last season according to our metrics -- turning in a 0.29 Reception NEP per target and 73.68% Success Rate. The wiser investment will likely turn out to be Wright, who is $400 cheaper and posted a 0.87 Reception NEP per target (fifth among receivers with at least 40 targets) and 82.76% Success Rate.
Chicago ranked just 22nd in pass attempts per game last season (34.9), but if you take away their three wins, in which they averaged just 28.3, you get a different story. In negative game scripts, which they seemingly are assured to find themselves in this Sunday, the Bears averaged 36.5 pass attempts, just outside the top-10 in the NFL.
Given a look at Chicago's depth chart this season, Wright is a near-lock to soak up a large portion of those targets as Chicago plays from behind. Pairing him with Freeman makes a ton of sense from a game script perspective.
Others to Consider
Matt Ryan ($8,500) and Julio Jones ($9,000) are obviously both in terrific spots, but seem a bit expensive to be considered core plays given all the other options. It is worth mentioning that Matty Ice performed much better in projected shootouts over the past two seasons, averaging 312 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns with an over/under of at least 49.5 points, as opposed to 287 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in all others.
Jordan Howard ($7,500) has been a popular breakout pick after an uber-efficient 2016, and may garner some attention in Week 1. Let's pump the breaks a bit, though. Howard averaged just 9.9 FanDuel points when the Bears were at least one-touchdown underdogs last season, as opposed to 16.8 in all other games.
With Tarik Cohen ($4,500) brought on to presumably assume most of the passing-down work, Howard projects as a very dicey touchdown-dependent play with Atlanta listed as such large favorites.
