Fantasy Football: What Are the Odds a Specific Player Will Fall to You in Your Draft?

Wide Receiver

There are certainly fewer questions at wide receiver than at running back, but last week threw this slot into a bit of a tizzy, too.

With Sammy Watkins going to the Los Angeles Rams, you knew his ADP would go down. And it certainly has so far. But if you still believe in Watkins -- and there are reasons you should -- how long can you now wait before picking him?

Wide Receiver Availability Odds: Standard Scoring

Wide Receiver Availability Odds: PPR Scoring

As things stand now, you have a 63.40% chance of getting Watkins with the 45th overall pick in PPR drafts. Before the trade, his ADP was in the third round. So the market has certainly adjusted a bit there, though he could continue to drop more.

As for the other guy involved with the Friday craziness in Jordan Matthews, his situation is a bit more unclear. Although his ADP is at 109.9 in PPR leagues, he also has the highest standard deviation for any receiver going in the top 125 picks. His recent chest injury figures to only increase that unpredictability.

The other pieces in the offense are still quite cheap, at least. You have a 59.73% chance of nabbing Zay Jones with pick 140, and Anquan Boldin is on the board at pick 155 more often than not. This presents a buying opportunity without having to overpay while investing in the offense.