The 9 Most Overvalued Players in Fantasy Football
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There's a compelling case to be made that Doug Martin is the most overvalued player in fantasy football right now.
Allow me to explain.
He's currently being selected in the middle of the fourth round in standard leagues, at RB20. But he's also going to miss three games due to a suspension and, oh, by the way, he wasn't very good in 2016.
I won't spend a ton of time on this point, because it's clear that anyone drafting Martin at RB20 is doing so with the logic that he'll be more of the 2015 version, not the 2016 one. Those two backs were not the same.
| Year | Rushing NEP per Rush | Success Rate | Top-12 Rate | Top-24 Rate | Average Weekly Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | -0.01 | 42.36% | 33.33% | 53.33% | 22.93 |
| 2016 | -0.20 | 34.72% | 12.50% | 62.50% | 30.00 |
While Martin had a higher top-24, RB2 rate -- the rate in which he ranked in the top-24 weekly -- in 2016 than 2015, much of that has to do with the somewhat arbitrary thresholds. He typically ranked in the lower RB2 end, which is why his average weekly rank was substantially worse year over year.
To pile onto this, the Buccaneers got to see what they have in Jacquizz Rodgers last season (who, by the way, is younger than Martin), as Rodgers ranked 11th in Success Rate among the 69 (nice) 50-plus attempt backs, while Martin finished 58th. And they just drafted Jeremy McNichols, a pretty athletic back with a sensational college production profile.
There's this, too: Martin's not even guaranteed the starting job when he returns.
Given the number of risks, taking Martin in the fourth just doesn't make any sense.
