Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team
O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Positional ADP: TE11 | Projected Finish: TE25
Everything I said about David Njoku and Seth DeValve can be magnified here, because Cameron Brate is more formidable competition than DeValve. Even worse for drafters, Howard has a higher ADP than Njoku, which magnifies the risk of drafting him.
If you need more reason to fade Howard, consider the strength of competition he'll face for targets.
| Player | Pos | Reception NEP/Target | Rec NEP/Tar Positional Avg | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | TE | 0.81 | 0.62 | 87.7% |
| Mike Evans | WR | 0.84 | 0.66 | 95.8% |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | 0.76 | 0.66 | 87.5% |
All three of Tampa Bay's top pass-catchers crushed the league-wide average Reception NEP per target for their position, and they had outstanding Reception Success Rates, too.
Given his success last year and the slow transition for rookie tight ends, Brate should be the top tight end in Tampa Bay this year. Howard will still get on the field a lot, but he's got an uphill battle to win targets away from these three.
Instead Try
Zach Ertz and Eric Ebron are both available later in drafts, and they are projected to be top-12 performers. Ebron is poised for the best year of his career, and Ertz was a top-six performer at the position in terms of Reception NEP last year among tight ends to see at least 40 looks.
