5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
New England Patriots Rushing Offense
The New England Patriots need a win to lock down home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Head coach Bill Belichick is aware of that, and he has already said that the Patriots will use their starters in an attempt to get it. That's good news if you're looking for a running back.
The Patriots are 9.5-point favorites on the road against the Miami Dolphins Sunday, a spread that would indicate they could pound it with the rush late in the game. New England ranks 10th in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play, so they can move the ball that way when they want. The Dolphins serve as the perfect target for an opponent.
They enter Week 17 ranked 26th against the rush for the season, and things have been even worse of late. Since their Week 8 bye (eight games), running backs against the Dolphins have 0.05 Rushing NEP per carry and a 47.16% Success Rate. The league averages in those two marks for running backs are 0.00 and 40.85%, respectively, and opponents are running laps around those marks. With the spread so heavily in the Patriots' favor, they should be able to pair that efficiency with decent volume.
Both of these will obviously benefit LeGarrette Blount. He leads the league with 17 rushing touchdowns, and he has at least 18 rushes in all but three games this year. He's a mighty fine target. But Dion Lewis could have some viability, too.
In the Patriots' past two games, Lewis has 18 and 16 carries, respectively. Prior to that, his career high for carries in a game was 15, and he had hit double digits just twice. With 95 yards in one game and 52 in the other, it's time to start considering Lewis once again.
What makes Lewis even more intriguing is when he has gotten his opportunities. If we look at just the first halves of those two games, Lewis out-carried Blount, 20-12. He also out-gained Blount, 87-27. The Patriots won both of those games by at least 13 points, and they didn't really need Lewis as much in the second half. It seems possible that he is now the team's desired option as long as the game remains close.
Given the discrepancies in efficiency between Lewis and Blount, it wouldn't be a shock if this were the case. This table shows their NEP splits this year, and it's clear which guy is the more desirable option.
| Rusher | Carries | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 285 | -0.63 | 0.00 | 36.84% |
| Dion Lewis | 53 | 3.94 | 0.07 | 52.83% |
This isn't just because Lewis has been fresher throughout games, either. He has a 47.06% Success Rate the past two weeks -- when his volume has been high -- and Blount is at just 29.73% in those. Lewis is balling out, and the Patriots are rewarding him for it with increased opportunities.
Blount is always going to be the more desirable asset because of the touchdown upside he brings. However, with Blount at $7,600 on FanDuel and Lewis at $5,200, they're both viable for DFS this week, and it may be the game where Lewis' upside finally shines again.
