5 Players to Avoid in the Fantasy Football Playoffs
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Week 14: Houston (5th least points allowed to opposing quarterbacks)
Week 15: Minnesota (2nd)
Week 16: Oakland (25th)
Similar to Rodgers, it's difficult to sit someone who's been as fantastic as Andrew Luck -- who just put an epic beatdown on the New York Jets last week -- but the Indianapolis Colts are in for a rough stretch the next two weeks.
Coming off an absolutely brilliant performance, Luck and company will face two defenses in Houston (18.6 points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks) and Minnesota (18.0). Houston is stout, but Minnesota has been death to quarterbacks.
Using our schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, the Minnesota defense is allowing -0.06 expected points per drop back (2nd). Opposing teams are dropping back to pass an average of 38 times per game against the Vikes, meaning that, on average, these teams are losing 2.28 expected points -- close to a field goal -- per game through the air. Only two teams in the NFL sport a negative NEP per drop back.
If you're fortunate enough to make it to championship week in Week 16, Luck should be able to go HAM as he will have a great matchup against the Raiders. But you gotta get there, first, and Luck may not be the guy to lead you there.
