Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 11

Avoid Todd Gurley as an Underdog

The Los Angeles Rams are 1.5-point home underdogs versus the Miami Dolphins. The Rams were favored by a point earlier this week, but that changed when rookie Jared Goff was named the starting quarterback for the Rams.

Gurley may seem like an attractive option because logic says that a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut will be playing it safe by handing it to his stud running back. While the volume may be there for Gurley, his past performances as an underdog indicate he may not match his cost on FanDuel.

According to the Rotoviz Game Splits App, in 16 games as an underdog, Gurley has averaged 12.26 half-PPR points per game, which is about 5.5 points less than he has averaged as a favorite.

The Rams have an implied total of 19.25 points, which is the fourth-lowest on the weekend slate. The Rams' games have only gone over the total three out of nine times this season.

He is priced at $6,700, the 12th-highest among running backs. While this price is low, he lacks the upside that we look for in cheaper options. It's best to avoid him in both cash games and tournaments.