Week 11 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots
Over/Under: 51.0
49ers Implied Team Total: 19.00
Patriots Implied Team Total: 32.00
Unlike the Indy-Tennessee game, this contest isn't likely to be much of a back and forth affair. The New England Patriots come into Week 11 with the highest implied team total by a large margin, as they are projected for 32 points against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has surrendered 34.8 points per game to their last four opponents. The 13-point spread in this game is also the largest on the slate by 6.5 points.
San Francisco has played at the fastest pace in the league this season and are the only team who has had over 70 plays run against them per game. Their combination of an inefficient offense that plays at a quick pace and the league's eighth-worst Adjusted Defensive NEP per play leads to a large boost in fantasy value to opposing players due to the extra plays, especially running backs.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $9,300
It's going to be tough to fit Tom Brady's salary into your lineup, but given his performances in similar spots over the past three years, it is hard to ignore him. In 10 games since the beginning of the 2014 season, Brady has averaged 310 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in games that have had at least a 51-point over/under, as opposed to 274 yards and 1.9 touchdowns in all other games. In 17 games during that span that the Pats have won by at least 13 points, Brady has averaged 309 yards and 2.7 touchdowns.
In addition to game script setting up incredibly for Brady, there's also the homecoming narrative, if you're into that sort of thing.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $7,300
With all the points expected to be scored on the New England side of the ball, Brady is certainly in play, but this game really is setting up to be all about LeGarrette Blount. The league-leader in rushing touchdowns (12) by a wide margin, Blount should be a big part of the Pats reaching their 32-point implied team total.
Playing as heavy favorites should lead to plenty of additional carries and scoring opportunities for Blount as the Pats run down the clock in the second half. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."
Even in a neutral game script, Blount should have no trouble running all over the hapless Niners defense. San Francisco has allowed a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry and 30.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs this season. Over the past four weeks, opposing backs have averaged an absurd 194 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against the Niners.
Speaking of touchdowns, did I mention that they have allowed 15 touchdowns to running backs over the past seven games? One other team has allowed that many scores to opposing backs, and it took them 10 games to do so.
Others to Consider
The New England D/ST is in a great spot here against the turnover prone Colin Kaepernick and the Niners, who are projected for the fifth-worst implied team total (19 points). Pairing them with Blount makes a lot of sense from a game script perspective, too. If you expect the Pats to hold San Fran in check early, or score a defensive touchdown, that helps Blount get to garbage clock-running time earlier.
