Week 11 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under: 48.0
Browns Implied Team Total: 20.25
Steelers Implied Team Total: 27.75
The over/under in this game doesn't jump off the page, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have the second-highest implied team total on the slate (27.75 points) as well as the second-largest spread (-7.5 points).
Similar to San Fran, the Cleveland Browns have played at a surprisingly quick pace for a struggling offense, ranking seventh in seconds per play. As a result, they have had the fourth-most plays per game run against them. Cleveland also boasts the second-worst Adjusted Defensive NEP per play. Cleveland's weak defense and quick pace should result in a boost in fantasy production for all of Pittsburgh's offensive players.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $8,400
Ben Roethlisberger looked to be at full health last week, completing 37 of 46 passes for 408 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Browns have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks this season and are fresh off of getting picked apart by Joe Flacco and company for 296 yards and 3 scores.
Cleveland also ranks second-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. No team has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Browns, which bodes well for Roethlisberger and the Steelers, who are projected to score 27.75 points.
It's worth noting that this game will be played on the road, where Roethlisberger has really struggled. He has posted some pretty extreme home/away splits since the beginning of the 2014 season, as evidenced by the image below.
However, Roethlisberger has also played better when he has found himself in game scripts similar to this during that time frame. In games with at least a 48-point over/under, he's averaged 40.7 pass attempts for 330 yards and 2.1 touchdowns, as opposed to 37.3 attempts for 301 yards and 1.9 touchdowns in all other games. In games the Steelers have won by at least eight points, as they are projected to this week, Big Ben has averaged 325 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns per game.
As a result of his advantageous matchup and game script, it should come as no surprise that our projections have Roethlisberger projected for more FanDuel points than any quarterback this week, as well as the best value -- despite his expensive salary.
Game script sets up very well for a big game from Roethlisberger in this one, with his daunting home/road splits being the only real thing keeping him from being one of the most popular options this week.
Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $9,100
Unlike Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell hasn't posted extreme home/road splits in his career, actually posting better rushing numbers on the road. He draws a terrific matchup against the Browns, who have allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs as well as a 27th-ranked 4.5 yards per carry. Over the past four weeks, the Browns are one of just two teams to allow over 30 FanDuel points per game to opposing backs, as their opponents have piled up 171.5 rushing yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game during that span.
Bell should run all over the Browns early in the game and have the opportunity to pile up stats in the second half as Pittsburgh plays with a lead. Bell has played 95.8 percent of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps since returning from suspension, including being in for 52 of 59 snaps during a 31-to-13 win, so you shouldn't have to worry about him seeing his carries cut if this game gets out of hand.
Bell has averaged an elite 24.2 touches for 132.2 scrimmage yards this season, with the only downfall being his inability to find the end-zone. With Pittsburgh projected for nearly four touchdowns this weekend, he should have no problem getting in on the scoring. If you think Pittsburgh really goes off on Cleveland this weekend, stacking Roethlisberger and Bell makes a lot of sense (see Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, who combined for 46 FanDuel points against the Browns just two weeks ago). Given Bell's usage in the passing game (Bell ranks 14th in the NFL with 9.3 targets per game), the two are actually fairly positively correlated.
Others to Consider
If you believe a big game is coming for Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown is the most logical pairing option. It should come as no surprise, but Cleveland has struggled to defend receivers this season too, allowing the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing wideouts. Brown will get a matchup against Joe Haden in this one too, who he has owned in his career. In nine career matchups, Brown has posted an average line of 7 catches for 111 yards and 0.8 touchdowns against Haden. In his last four meetings with Cleveland, Brown has posted 8.8 catches for 140 yards and 1 touchdown per game.
Ladarius Green draws the best matchup of any Pittsburgh player, as the Browns have allowed more FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends than any other team. His playing time is still in question, but he is reportedly going to see an increased workload this week. He is nothing more than a dart-throw, but at the stone-minimum price, he is worth a look in tournaments.
For the Browns, talented rookie wideout Corey Coleman is worth a look at just $5,400 against a suspect Pittsburgh secondary that has allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing receivers this season. Coleman has been in for 90.4 percent of Cleveland's offensive snaps since returning to the field and has ranked second on the team with a 20.7 percent target market share. He showed us big upside earlier in the year with a 24.9-point FanDuel performance and is worth a shot as a punt-play in tournaments.
