Market Share Report: Le'Veon Bell's Big Day Shall Come
Target Market Shares
1. Golden Tate's Role Continues to Grow
Remember just a few weeks ago when Golden Tate was drop-worthy in season-long fantasy football? With the usage he had, that would have been absolutely the right move, and you shouldn't feel bad about the process if you did so. But this dude has pulled a complete 180 over the past four games.
In this span, Tate has at least nine targets in every game, including his second 12-target outing of the season in Week 9. His target market share is up to 23.4% for the season and 31.6% in this four-game stretch. Two of those games have come with both Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron active, so it's not as if he's benefiting from attrition, either.
The most encouraging part of Tate's role change is that it has corresponded with an uptick in efficiency, possibly meaning this shift could be here to stay. The table below shows his splits through the lens of numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players. Reception NEP is the expected points he has added on all receptions, and Target NEP deducts expected points lost on incompletions and interceptions when that player was targeted.
| Time Frame | Targets | Reception NEP | Target NEP | Target NEP per Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 5 Games | 31 | 8.62 | -5.81 | -0.19 |
| Past 4 Games | 43 | 28.75 | 20.38 | 0.47 |
He went from a trainwreck to being above average all while getting heavier volume. There's a lot to love here, and with the Detroit Lions heading into their bye, now's not a bad time to adjust the way we're viewing Tate as a fantasy asset.
2. Jarvis Landry's Concerns Run Deep
If you've rostered Jarvis Landry recently, you know the brown stuff done hit the fan. The team is leaning heavily on Jay Ajayi, allowing them to forgo the pass. As a result, Landry hasn't had double-digit targets since Week 4, a mark he hit each of the first four games. That's not where the troubles end, though.
Take a look at how Landry's usage has differed over the past four games versus the first four. Not only is the team throwing less, but his role in the offense appears to be slipping.
| Time Frame | Targets per Game | Target Market Share | RZ Target Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 4 Games | 11.25 | 34.6% | 25.0% |
| Past 4 Games | 6.50 | 26.8% | 16.7% |
In a vacuum, a player with a 26.8% target market share is an absolutely viable fantasy asset. But when that player is hideously inefficient and isn't getting looks near the end zone, you've got a big problem on your hands.
Landry's going to have some solid games when the Miami Dolphins are forced to pass. But his pricing on DFS sites doesn't quite reflect his reduced role yet, and you may want to hold off on diving in until that's the case.
3. Tavon Austin Goes Poof
One of the most puzzling things this entire season has been the Los Angeles Rams' infatuation with Tavon Austin. He had been the least efficient receiver in the league -- based on Reception NEP per target -- and he had cost the team 24.74 Target NEP through the first seven games. Yet, he maintained a 27.4% target market share over that same span. They were sinking their team by funneling this dude targets.
That changed in Week 9.
Instead of his usual 9.14 targets per game, Austin finished with just two. Lance Kendricks snagged 12 targets with seven going to Tyler Higbee, six to Kenny Britt, and six to Brian Quick. Even while playing 78% of the snaps, Austin's role evaporated into thin air.
We don't want to target this offense often given their utter hatred of points and efficiency. But when we find ourselves in those situations, the siren song of Austin will be infinitely less tempting. He's inefficient, and the team may be shifting away from targeting him, so we can instead give consideration to Kendricks and Britt going forward.
