Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 9

Avoid the Cowboys' Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible so they can begin taking bets. For Week 9, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. These lines are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

On Monday morning, the total for the Cleveland Browns' home game against the Dallas Cowboys opened at 46.5 points. Since then, it has risen 2 points to 48.5. Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the line rose 2 points or more, the average defensive score was only 6.28 fantasy points per game, which was less than the league average of 7.44 points per game in 2015.

From that same article, I noted that defenses involved in games with a total ranging from 46 to 49 points only scored an average of 6.61 points per game. The total of 48.5 points is the fourth-highest total of the weekend slate.

Dallas is favored by 7.5 points on the road, and it's notoriously risky to bet on road favorites of more than 7 points. According to Bet Labs, over the past 10 seasons, road favorites of 7.5 or more points have gone 46-65 against the spread for a cover percentage of only 41.4%.

The Dallas D/ST is priced at $4,900, fifth among defenses on FanDuel. Due to being a heavy favorite, they seem like a trendy pick in a weekend where defensive streamers are tough to find, but the trends indicate that avoiding them would be the safe play.