Week 8 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Over/Under: 47.0
Bills Implied Team Total: 20.25
Patriots Implied Team Total: 26.75
This over/under in this game isn't quite as attention-grabbing as some others, but the New England Patriots do boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate and are the largest favorites (-6.5) as well.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $8,700
Tom Brady has looked like his usal dominant self since returning, averaging 335 passing yards and 25 FanDuel points per game. His matchup this week against the Buffalo Bills isn't overly enticing, but game script sets up very well for another big performance from Brady.
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, since 2013, Brady has averaged 306 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns in 26 games he played with Rob Gronkowski and the Pats won by at least six points. In 25 other games during that span, his averages were just 251 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. In 17 games with at least a 47-point over/under with New England favored by at least 6.5 points since 2013, Brady has averaged 295 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns.
Given his play this season and New England's large implied team total, it should come as no surprise that Brady checks in as our highest projected scoring quarterback this week.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $6,600
Despite ranking fifth in FanDuel points among running backs on this slate and coming off of a monster 127-yard, 2-score game, LeGarrette Blount checks in as just the 12th-most expensive running back on this slate. When you factor in his favorable matchup and game script for this week, his price seems even more ridiculous. Blount's opponent, the Bills, ranked as our worst run defense in 2015, and are fresh off of allowing Jay Ajayi to pile up 214 rushing yards against them.
Over the past two seasons, New England has won 14 of their 19 games by at least six points. In those 14 games, Blount has averaged 16.6 carries for 71 rushing yards and 0.9 touchdowns, up from 15.2 for 54 and 0.4 in other games. By this point, it's a pretty well understood theme -- if it looks like New England could jump out to an early lead, Blount could be in for a big day. Given the fact that they're playing as the heaviest favorites on the slate, with the second-highest implied team total, it seems pretty likely that Blount handles a lot of mop-up duties in this one.
Others to Consider
Gronkowski is averaging 121 receiving yards and 0.7 touchdowns since returning to full health and is impossible to ignore as the slate's premier tight end option. Using the same splits as Brady -- games in which Brady and Gronk both played and New England has won by at least six since 2013 -- Gronkowski has averaged 5.4 catches for 87 yards and 0.8 touchdowns, as opposed to 4.4 catches for 63 yards and 0.5 touchdowns in all other games during that span. He could certainly be a big part of New England reaching their 26.75-point implied team total.
