Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 8

Start the Chargers Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible so they can begin taking bets. For Week 8, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. These lines are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The San Diego defense will be facing a familiar foe when they take on the Denver Broncos, a team they faced just two games ago. In that game, the Chargers were 3-point home underdogs and they went on to win 21-13.

Since then, the Chargers shocked (pun intended) the Falcons by winning as road underdogs of 4.5 points.

I hesitate to recommend a team coming off of two incredible wins, but an emotional letdown should not be an issue when facing a division rival. Familiarity, recent success, and motivation are great, but the line movement in this game also has me leaning towards the Chargers.

This Sunday's game opened with the Broncos favored by six points, but it has since dropped to five points. In fact, it shortly dropped to 4.5 points before creeping back up to 5. Moving the line off of the number six is somewhat significant since it is the fourth most common winning margin in the NFL.

Another favorable trend is that the total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.5 points -- the third-lowest total on the weekend slate. With the news that C.J. Anderson may miss multiple weeks, the total could fall even further.

The Chargers defense is priced at $4,200, just $200 above the minimum on FanDuel, making them the perfect defense for tournaments.