Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 8

Avoid Aaron Rodgers as a Road Underdog

Aaron Rodgers is most famous for the being the older brother of The Bachelorette contestant Jordan Rodgers, but he's also a pretty good football thrower.

Rodgers is coming off of a game where he threw it 56 times while racking up 23.7 fantasy points on FanDuel.

His matchup on the road versus the Atlanta Falcons, who just allowed Philip Rivers to pass for 371 yards, looks like a tasty matchup. However, his career trends as an underdog say we may want to pass.

Rodgers has played 13 career games as an underdog of three or more points and averaged 18.64 points, which is a little over 6 points less than his career average in all games. For reference, 18.64 points would have been eighth place among quarterbacks last week.

It's also worth noting that the spread on this game opened with the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites but it has since risen to the key number of 3.

Rodgers still has a strong chance of finishing in the top 10 among quarterbacks in a week with six teams on a bye, but you need Rodgers to finish in the top five for him to be remotely close to a value. He is currently priced at $8,800, the most expensive at quarterback. His history as an underdog combined with his high price has me staying away from Rodgers this weekend in daily fantasy football.