Market Share Report: Should We Worry About Alshon Jeffery?

Red-Zone Market Shares

1. Jamison Crowder's Not Going Away

Nobody would have blamed you for writing off Jamison Crowder's four red-zone targets as being a fluke in Week 1. It's just one game, and you don't want to overreact to such a strange stat for a guy who stands 5'8".

Then he got one more in Week 2. Then he followed it up with three more in Week 3, including a pair of targets inside the 10-yard line. We can't be writing this off anymore.

Crowder currently holds a 36.8% market share of the team's targets inside the red zone, more than double the marks of any other player on the team. This includes Jordan Reed, who has just three red-zone targets this year after tallying 21 last year. Given Reed's tight-end frame, you'd expect that number to rise, but we haven't seen it yet, and it seems as if Crowder's involvement close is going to continue.

Not only does this provide a major value boost for Crowder, but it also hampers Reed quite a bit. If he's not going to suck up all of the high-leverage looks, it might be a bit harder to say he has the same ceiling he had on a weekly basis last year. Entering a week in which Reed will likely be the most-popular option on the board because of a matchup with the Cleveland Browns, it's fair to wonder whether it's Reed or Crowder who truly deserves to be the chalk.

2. Carlos Hyde Is Impossible to Decipher

Carlos Hyde is a run-first option on a team that doesn't figure to have many positive game scripts throughout the course of the season. That profile -- in a vacuum -- would make him a fantasy dud.

Then you look at his red-zone involvement, and you kind of just start to scratch your head. His overall market share when the team is in the red zone-- carries plus targets divided by plays -- is the second-highest mark in the league behind only Todd Gurley. Basically, when the San Francisco 49ers get in close, they're riding Hyde unless they absolutely cannot do so.

This is going to give Hyde an absurd range of outcomes on a weekly basis. If the team struggles and can't reach the red one, which is what we saw in Week 2, then the points will be few and far between. However, if they can even crank out two scoring drives in a single game, he's going to have multi-touchdown upside every time just because the team is so insistent on getting him the ball.

Overall, Hyde will still be unusable in bad matchups for the 49ers, even if his ceiling is quality, just because his floor will be so low. However, when the team's at home and facing a lesser foe, we can have a bit more faith in the high-tempo offense and roll out Hyde despite the concerns.