College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 12/28/22
With daily fantasy football so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.
FanDuel offers college football daily fantasy contests now in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which can include tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.
Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so finding out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.
Wednesday's four-game slate features perhaps the single most prolific day of offense in bowl season. Eight top-shelf offenses -- with seven dual-threat star quarterbacks -- have this slate set up to be filled with wild shootouts.
Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.
|Texas Tech||Ole Miss||-3.5||71.5||34.0||37.5|
As every total over 62.0 points would indicate, this slate is bananas. You're talking about eight of the best offenses in college football on Wednesday.
We're expecting points, points, and more points on this slate.
Defensive Matchups and Rankings
Note: Higher numbers are easier matchups for the opposing team. Lower numbers are better rankings and tougher matchups.
|Team||Defensive Passing Yards
Per Attempt Rank (FBS)
|Defensive Rushing Yards
Per Attempt Rank (FBS)
There really are only two defenses with supremely redeemable qualities. The totals are what they are for a reason.
Duke is the stingiest individual unit against one dimension. They were 22nd in yards per attempt (YPA) against the rush, which will be very helpful against Gus Malzahn's Knights. Speaking of the Knights, Central Florida and Mississippi were the only above-average defenses in Passing YPA allowed.
Bo Nix ($12,400) will give you something. He just comes at a potential opportunity cost.
Nix posted over 30 FanDuel points in nine straight this year before tough meetings with Utah and Oregon State late. UNC's 109th-ranked passing defense won't be that, but really, the story could be whether the Tar Heels can keep pace. A blowout with multiple running back scores could lead to Nix falling flat with this enormous salary.
I think still think Drake Maye ($11,200) and UNC will keep up -- even without his NFL-bound top target. He torched Duke's 71st-ranked pass defense for 380 passing yards and another 70 yards on the ground. As a true freshman, he'll probably play late into a potential blowout, too. As a result, his floor might be higher.
Yet, I am taking the salary savings to KJ Jefferson ($11,000) and especially Jalon Daniels ($9,200) instead. Part of that is market share to get reliable access to the Arkansas and Kansas passing games. None of their individual targets hit 800 receiving yards this year. To me, Daniels is the best per-dollar play on the slate and can be used with another top guy.
When forced to nitpick amongst guys who would have headlined literally any other bowl slate this year, Riley Leonard ($10,600) and John Rhys Plumlee ($10,200) do have the lowest total on the board, and Jaxson Dart ($9,800) hasn't eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in four of his last six as the Rebels have shifted to a run-first approach.
The lone place not worth considering is Texas Tech's ambiguous situation.
I'll deploy two quarterbacks in most lineups with running back being so weak.
Quinshon Judkins ($10,000) is a huge exception. He toted the rock 25.6 times on average in his last five games, which was 64.1% of Ole Miss' total carries. The sensational freshman might also be without his backup, Zach Evans ($8,000), due to a late-season concussion.
Given he's just $200 lower in salary, Raheim Sanders ($9,800) just doesn't seem like the same level of value. Arkansas scaled his work back (43.5% rush share in the past five games), but his talent prevailed for 232 yards and 4 touchdowns against Judkins' squad two games ago. He's still in the mix.
Value isn't bad on this slate, either. Devin Neal ($7,800) and Elijah Green ($7,600) both have over 60.0% of their team's carries in the past five games. That type of volume in these matchups could be incredibly risky to fade.
The salary of Bucky Irving ($8,500) is just wild to me. Someone must know something I don't because, while I get Irving is the lead back on a 14.5-point favorite, he's almost certainly going to cede work to Noah Whittington ($7,400) and Jordan James ($5,000). None of the three have above a 35.0% rush share in the past five games.
The absence of NFL draft prospect Josh Downs is what creates so much turmoil here.
Downs was a five-digit salary wideout all year, but he's sitting this one. I'd say we're lucky UNC played three games without him earlier this year, but his co-star Antoine Green ($9,400) was also out at the time. Green should lead the Heels' attack, but in the time without Downs, Kobe Paysour ($5,400) led the team with a 25.6% target share. Tight end Kamari Morales ($5,300) was the only other guy over 15.0%.
UCF's target leader, Ryan O'Keefe, has also left his school. That's why Kobe Hudson ($7,900) saw a large salary jump from the AAC title game. The big-play threat is averaging 17.0 yards a catch this year, and junior Javon Baker ($6,900) should see more of the short-to-intermediate work. He caught 54 balls this year alongside O'Keefe.
Matt Landers ($9,000) was the only Razorback over a 13.0% target share besides Jadon Haselwood, and -- you guessed it -- Haselwood, too, has left his school. Landers will have a clear top role against KU.
With a 26.6% target share (which is third on this slate), Jalon Calhoun ($7,100) is significantly undervalued. Teammate Jordan Moore ($7,000) is fine with a 23.8% share himself.
Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Kansas have pretty wide target trees, but Troy Franklin ($9,200), Malik Heath ($8,200), Jonathan Mingo ($7,800), and Luke Grimm ($6,300) are the others who had target shares north of 20.0% this year. I can't reasonably recommend anyone else at the position, yet many random names should find paydirt on this wild slate.