College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 10/13/22
Thursday's two-game slate predominately features a conference Power 5 clash in what should be a raucous environment.
The other game? Well, probably the opposite. It's a huge spread, and numberFire's model is assessing a 99% chance the home team gets it done.
Where can we find value when betting on these two contests?
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 54.5 (-105) - 4 Stars
The best weekday game of Week 7 is in Morgantown.
The ranked Baylor Bears travel to face West Virginia, and there should be points in this Big 12 showdown. These two offenses aren't stellar, but this mid-sized total for this conference might just be too low.
Baylor is a balanced team with top-60 marks in yards per attempt both passing and running. Freshman tailback Richard Reese is already over the 400-yard mark, and Blake Shapen is completing a solid 69.3% of his throws.
As for the Mountaineers, they've scored over 30 points on every defense except the top-20 unit in Texas. Senior JT Daniels leads a pass-happy West Virginia offense, and he's got future NFL draft pick Bryce Ford-Wheaton averaging 11.8 yards per reception on the outside.
numberFire's model thinks we'll see a shootout, expecting this one to cross over 55 points a whopping 70.3% of the time. Against just 51.2% implied odds, that's too good to pass up. I can easily see this game into the 30s on both sides as well.
UCF -23.5 (-105) - 5 Stars
Laying the heavy home favorite isn't always the wrong move.
Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS. They played three Power 5 or Group of 5 teams, and they scored 19 points combined against them. It's not like Duke, Rutgers, and Memphis are powerhouses, either. Overall, they're 117th in yards per play offensively.
They're 12th in overall defensive yards per play, but they gave up 30 points to Duke and 24 points to Memphis. Central Florida is 50th in yards per play (5.7), sandwiched between those two aforementioned schools.
Overall, we can expect UCF will put up points in this one, too. Guz Malzahn, the former head coach of Auburn, has a tremendous supporting cast. Mississippi transfer John Rhys Plumlee and Auburn transfer Kobe Hudson are legitimate top-level talents, and Knights veterans Isaiah Bowser and Ryan O'Keefe have fit right in as well.
UCF posted 484 yards and 41 points on Southern Methodist last week. They'll put up points, and Temple might not score a touchdown again. The model expects UCF to cover this spread 80.0% of the time, so we'll take -105 odds it happens.