College Football Conference Championship Bets and Win Totals: Atlantic Coast Conference
College football season is nearly upon us, and there are plenty of NCAA football odds and outrights on FanDuel Sportsbook we can explore.
Clemson's dominant run at the top of the ACC ended last year due to mediocre offensive performances. Pitt and Wake Forest met in last year's conference title game, but both teams have lost their star quarterback -- at least for the start of the season. Oddsmakers like the Tigers, but this one is still pretty wide open.
Here's how the conference winner odds shake out for this year overall.
Conference Winner(s) to Bet
Miami (FL) Hurricanes (+500)
At -155 odds, Clemson is one of the worst bets on the board. Pro Football Focus gives them just a 23.3% chance to win the ACC versus the 60.8% implication from them.
If Clemson falters, Miami is clearly next in line. New coach Mario Cristobal came over from Oregon with a top-10 recruiting class, and they're returning a core led by quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Van Dyke will also have a strong offensive line with two NFL prospects at tackle.
Miami's projected SP+ (15.6) is 14th in the country, and their ceiling seems high considering they've added high-level freshman talent to a team that won five of its last six to close 2021.
Virginia Cavaliers (+4800)
If Clemson doesn't rectify its offensive woes, this conference is too wide open for Virginia to carry just a 2.0% implied probability to win it.
By far, they've got the best offense in the ACC led by crafty left-hander Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong gets his full compliment of weapons back this year, too, including Dontayvion Wicks and Billy Kemp IV, who led the Cavs in target share.
Virginia's floor is much lower thanks to a defense that's 112th in projected SP+, but the top teams in this conference aren't super dynamic offensively.
There's a chance they can replicate what Sam Hartman and Wake Forest did last year -- outscore everyone to win their division.
Win Total(s) to Target
Louisville Cardinals Over 6.5 Wins (+125)
The Cardinals had a busy offseason in the transfer portal, adding 11 players. They've got the fundamental piece in place, though.
Malik Cunningham should be a dark horse Heisman Trophy contender in his senior season. He rushed for 1,031 yards last season while posting nearly 3,000 yards through the air, and we'll likely see the best version of him yet in 2022.
Louisville lost four games last year by one score, including a tough-luck loss to Air Force in their bowl game. They're ranked 30th in projected SP+, which would place them far close to eight or nine wins than the seven required here -- at plus money.
North Carolina Tar Heels Under 6.5 Wins (+135)
I just don't understand this line.
UNC was a six-win team in 2021 with Sam Howell, an NFL quarterback that started the year in first-round draft pick contention. They're stepping back to two total unknowns at the position in Drake Maye or Jacoby Criswell.
North Carolina's projected SP+ on offense -- ranked 11th -- is just too high. Josh Downs is a first-round wideout and dynamic playmaker, but Howell and touchdown machine Ty Chandler are gone. If anything, the Tar Heels' strength is their defensive interior and secondary, and they're only pegged as the 70th-best squad in terms of defensive SP+.
Five teams in this conference are pegged at 6.5 wins. UNC appears just as likely to be non-competitive as Florida State, but the Noles have dual-threat stud Jordan Travis locked in as their signal-caller. The Heels are the one squad where I could see the wheels falling off.